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Saturday 12 July 2025

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Publication
A Long-Term International Presence in Nagorno-Karabakh Is Needed

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Nagorno Karabakh's future is the most challenging question that Armenia and Azerbaijan face as they seek to move towards the normalisation of relations between them.
Since the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh war ended, Armenia and Azerbaijan have launched multi-track negotiations to sign a peace treaty. In 2021 the primary platform for negotiations was Russia, and in 2022 the EU and the US joined the club. Armenia and Azerbaijan discuss several separate but intertwined issues – the signature of the peace treaty, delimitation and demarcation of borders, restoration of communications, and the future of Nagorno Karabakh. All issues are pretty complicated, but Nagorno Karabakh's future is the most challenging question. There are different approaches how to deal with this issue. One approach argues for the inclusion of Nagorno Karabakh in the bilateral peace treaty, while according to another view, the Nagorno Karabakh issue should be separated from discussions on Armenia - Azerbaijan relations. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 15.03.2023  |  Security
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From Syria to Nagorno-Karabakh: Assessing Russo-Turkish ‘Co-opetition’

Yeghia TASHJIAN By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

On a diplomatic level, Turkey tried to launch “Astana style” diplomatic measures to address Nagorno-Karabakh. However, given the fact that the conflict was taking place in the post-Soviet space, Russia failed to see much incentive in engaging in a bilateral track with Turkey in the form of a new “Astana style” process where Turkey and Russia were going to be equal partners, addressing a conflict in Russia’s “backyard”.
The year 2022 witnessed intensified dialogues between top Syrian and Turkish officials. These kicked off with an August meeting in Damascus between Ali Mamlouk, the Head of the National Security Bureau of the Ba’ath Party and a Special Security Advisor to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and Hakan Fidan, the Head of Turkiye’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT). They concluded with a tripartite December meeting in Moscow, where Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu hosted his Syrian and Turkish colleagues Ali Mahmoud Abbas and Hulusi Akar (remarkably, Ali Mamlouk and Hakan Fidan were also present). Those meetings prompted world media and political experts to speculate about an “unthinkable” Syrian-Turkish rapprochement becoming “thinkable”. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 15.03.2023  |  External Relations
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Will the Earthquake Threaten Erdogan’s Rule?

Yeghia TASHJIAN By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

On February 6, 2023, two earthquakes with magnitudes 7.8 and 7.5—the deadliest in Turkey’s history—hit the Syrian-Turkish border. At least 45,000 people died in Turkey. Another 6,000 lives were lost in Syria. The fallout of the catastrophic earthquake came as President Erdogan faces his toughest re-election campaign yet. Despite speculation that Erdogan may postpone the elections, he declared that presidential and parliamentary elections will be held on the agreed-upon date, May 14 of this year.
Turkey is a central power in the Middle East. After the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh, its influence increased in the South Caucasus. Thus, any political shift will have an impact on the political landscape of the region. The Turkish President is known for exploiting crises; how he will be able to manage this current crisis and use it to his advantage is still questionable. This article will analyse the impact of the earthquake on Turkey’s domestic politics amid the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections as Turkey prepares to celebrate the centennial of its foundation as a republic in October 2023. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 10.03.2023  |  External Relations
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From Mumbai to Varna via Armenia: The New India-Europe Route

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The war in Ukraine has disrupted global supply chains, creating significant complications for transit routes crossing the Russia-Europe border. The world economy, still reeling from COVID-19, found itself in another crisis. Yet, even before the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, the primary sea transit routes connecting Southeast Asia with Europe, like the Suez Canal, were congested due to the growing cargo volumes. As one of the rising stars of the global economy, India was looking forward to establishing alternative routes to reach Europe. In 2000, India, Iran and Russia signed an agreement to launch the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) to connect India with Europe via Iran and Russia. Three main routes were identified to connect India with Russia: via Iran and Azerbaijan, via Iran and the Caspian Sea and via Iran-Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan. According to the initial plan, the cargo should enter northern Europe from Russia, creating an India-Europe route that circumvents the Suez Canal. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 10.03.2023  |  Markets
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Munich Conference Casts Optimistic Light on Azerbaijani-Armenian Peace Process

Fuad Shahbazov By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On February 19, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan attended the discussion panel regarding the South Caucasus at the Munich Security Conference. Afterward, they held a face-to-face meeting on the side-lines of the conference with the mediation of United States Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. Ultimately, the parties focused on the points at the top of their respective agendas, and as a result, they failed to reach a significant agreement on many key issues, including the status of the Lachin road and future development of the Zangezur Corridor. Aliyev revealed in a later interview that he had proposed to the Armenian side the establishment of bilateral checkpoints at both ends of the Zangezur Corridor and along the Lachin road. Since the end of the Second Karabakh War in 2020, Azerbaijan has long sought the establishment of this desired corridor through Armenia’s Syunik province to connect the country with its Nakhchivan exclave, albeit unsuccessfully. Thus, debates over the Zangezur project, among other issues, have led to a stalemate in peace negotiations, with regional actors, such as Iran, strictly standing against the project and supporting Armenia in its opposition. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 03.03.2023  |  Security
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Lachin Remains an Obstacle for the Resumption of Armenia-Azerbaijan Negotiations

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

For the last weeks Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations on a peaceful normalisation of relations appeared stalled. The stand-off with Azerbaijani activists on the Lachin Corridor continues to hinder progress. The US initiative to organize a Pashinyan – Aliyev meeting at the latest Munich Security Conference was "a step in the right direction". It gave a new breath of life to the negotiation process, and efforts are underway to revive the Brussels format and organize the fifth Pashinyan – Aliyev meeting in Brussels with the participation of the President of the European Council, Charles Michel.
After the brief momentum in Armenia – Azerbaijan negotiations in late September - early October 2022, the peace process seemed to stall. Assessing what went wrong after the 6 October 2022 Prague meeting is challenging. However, the Sochi summit held on 31 October and the meeting between foreign ministers held in Washington on 7 November did not add optimism to the future of the negotiation process. […]
Nevertheless, Armenia and Azerbaijan continued to work on the draft of the peace treaty, exchanging suggestions and ideas, and Yerevan sent its version of the final document to Azerbaijan and the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair states in mid-February. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 03.03.2023  |  External Relations
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Turkey Holds the Nordic Countries at Gunpoint: Implications for NATO

An open letter for a Peace By Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

It is a paradox that two democratic Nordic countries that are willing to join NATO and become interoperable with it are kept at bay by pseudo-democratic NATO member Turkey. As long as this situation persists, Russia strategically has the last laugh. This could have been avoided if the proposed policy recommendations had been implemented by NATO some time ago.
To begin with, it is crucial to recall a preamble to the North Atlantic Treaty (Washington Treaty 1949), namely: ‘The Parties to this Treaty are determined to safeguard the freedom – founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law’. Obviously, these principles have been repeatedly trampled upon by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan over the last decade. And now, two democratic candidates for NATO membership, Finland and Sweden, have to fulfil conditions virtually imposed by the pseudo-democratic government of Turkey. This is a worrying paradox. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 25.02.2023  |  Security
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Persian Gulf – Black Sea Transport Corridor

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The COVID–19 and the war in Ukraine have triggered the disruption of global supply chains forcing states to look for alternative transport routes to conduct trade and other economic activities. As one of the rising stars of the global economy, which just passed the UK to become the fifth largest economy in the world, India has looked for ways to expand its connections within Greater Eurasia even before the Pandemic and the Ukraine war. Given the increasing volume of cargo passing through the Suez channel, and the 2021 incident that blocked that waterway, India's primary task is establishing new routes to circumvent Suez while reaching Europe. In September 2000, India, Russia, and Iran declared their intention to establish an International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) to connect India with Russia and Northern Europe via Iran. Several other countries joined the project later, and currently, three routes are being discussed as a part of that corridor. The western route will pass via Iran and Azerbaijan, Trans-Caspian route will connect the Caspian Sea ports of Russia and Iran, and the Eastern Route will pass via Iran, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 25.02.2023  |  External Relations
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Black Sea Energy Submarine Cable – New Transit Role of Georgia

Nika CHITADZE By Nika CHITADZE, PhD, Director of the Center for International Studies, Tbilisi

The third decade of the 21st century, along with other global events and changes, is remarkable in terms of energy. The global cataclysms and the ongoing war on the European continent have particularly highlighted the political and ecological importance of energy. Despite the vital challenges, Europe is firmly committed to the policy of the Green Energy Agreement and the way to combat climate change.
The reduction of fossil fuels was already a priority of the environmental policy, which was not only changed after the start of the war by Russia but also the sanctions introduced against the aggressor were added. Sanctions mostly apply to energy carriers, which Russia has been using as political leverage for many years. The created situation showed us that Europe needs reliable corridors for the import of the same products along with the production of green energy. This situation opens completely new opportunities for several countries, among which Georgia occupies a key place – Georgia, which is an important link of the middle corridor. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 16.02.2023  |  Energy
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Will Earthquake Diplomacy Change Armenia-Turkey Relations?

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The devastating earthquakes of 7.8 and 7.5 magnitudes struck southern Turkey on February 6, 2023. As of February 12, the death toll passed 30,000, while the number of wounded reached almost 100,000. More than 12,000 buildings were destroyed, and large-scale rescue operations are underway. Besides the immense human tragedy, the earthquake will have domestic and foreign policy implications for Turkey. The country faces crucial presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for May 14. After the earthquake, discussions started about possibly postponing the elections, given the scale of destruction.
Turkey’s authorities have declared a three-month emergency in provinces affected by the earthquake. Many wonder about the possibility of pursuing an election campaign in the current circumstances. According to Turkey’s constitution, elections should occur by June 18, 2023. Only the start of a war gives authorities a legal option to postpone elections for one year. However, some experts argue that the government may apply to the Constitutional court asking for a one-year postponement claiming that the current emergency equals the launch of military activities. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 16.02.2023  |  External Relations
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EGF Head of Research, Dr. George Vlad NICULESCU, co-edited a new volume on “Understanding Contemporary Information Landscape Handbook (UCIL)” with the Austrian National Defence Academy and the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes: “The idea of this Handbook sprang forth from a policy recommendation issued at a past Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group (RSSC SG) workshop: “Create, with the assistance of PfP Consortium volunteers, a Reference Curriculum on Media Literacy, emphasizing the impact of modern communication techniques and social media on human biology, psychology and behaviour. The aim would be to raise awareness of the media as a tool of hybrid warfare, and how to build resilience to it at individual level.” Looking with an academic eye at the final product of our last three years of work I’d conclude that this Handbook is a great success as a valuable education tool for students and teachers in media studies, politics, international relations. READ MORE

New EGF Affiliated Expert, Dr. Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA was interviewed by “France 24 English -Access Asia” on what’s behind the posturing from New Delhi on the ongoing war between Israel and Iran. She explained that “India has significant strategic interests in both Iran and Israel. Taking sides in this conflict could jeopardise these interests in the medium to long term, which is something India cannot afford”. WATCH HERE

EGF Affiliated Expert Nika CHITADZE published a new book on “World Politics” with the International Black Sea University from Tbilisi, Georgia. The book is divided into four main parts: first part is dedicated to the history and theory of world politics; second part analyses key processes in world politics, such as: globalization, integration, and democratization. Third part describes the basic challenges facing the international community, including arms control and security, conflicts, terrorism, organized crime, failed states, demography, migration, environment, relations between the “Global North” and the “Global South”. The fourth part reviews the main aspects of regulating the political processes in the world with the methods and instruments of foreign policy and diplomacy, and global governance. READ HERE

EGF Affiliated Expert Yeghia TASHJIAN was recently interviewed by the "New Arab" on how developments in Syria impacted Hezbollah's politics and how the Lebanese government should carefully manage its relations with the new administration in Damascus. He was quoted saying: “Hezbollah lost its main Syrian regional power base and key political support system when support for the Assad regime ended. Syria was also an important transit country for smuggling Iranian missiles and weapons to Lebanon. Now that this transit is gone and amid Israeli pressure, Hezbollah feels squeezed between Israel from the south and sky and Syria from the East.” READ MORE

 

Between 07-10 November 2024, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 28th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Connectivity Risks and Opportunities in the South Caucasus”, held in Reichenau a/d Rax (Austria). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, here for George’s speaking points, here for the policy recommendations, and here for the proceedings of the workshop

Between 10-13 April 2025, Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 29th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Emerging Technologies in Conflict Prevention: Leveraging Technology for Peacebuilding in the South Caucasus”, held in Istanbul (Turkey). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, and here for George’s speaking points.

On June 3, 2025, Dr. George Vlad Niculescu gave a short brief on the outcomes and potential implications of Romania’s 2025 presidential elections to the “Neighbourhoods” Working Group of the Institute of European Studies de l’Université UCLouvain, site de Saint-Louis-Brussels. Read here his briefing.

  • The Daily BriefJuly 9, 2025
  • Stratfor 2018 Second-Quarter ForecastMarch 11, 2018
  • Stratfor 2018 Annual ForecastDecember 26, 2017
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EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Fuad Shahbazov
EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Fuad Shahbazov
EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Alan Whitehorn
EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Alan Whitehorn

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