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EGF
The European Geopolitical Forum

Tuesday 13 January 2026

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Publication
Gulf Tensions May Spill Over into the Caucasus

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The September 14th attacks against Saudi Arabia's oil facilities have dangerously increased tensions in the Middle East. Regardless of the author of these actions - the Houthi rebels from Yemen or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps using Iraqi or Iranian territories - a clear message was sent to the Gulf monarchies and the US: Iran on its own or through its proxy forces is capable of inflicting serious damage to the Gulf States’ vital interests, and the "maximum economic pressure" campaign led by the US since May 2018 has as yet failed to change Iranian regional policy. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 01.10.2019  |  Security
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Armenia–China: Strategic Partnership for Mutual Benefits

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Armenia and China are both among the ancient civilizations of human history. They share millennia of mutual contacts via the ancient Silk Road. However, history is not the only thing which unites the two nations. Both Armenians and Chinese put enormous emphasis on protecting their national identities and traditions. Of course, this does not mean that Armenia and China are not interested or involved in the current wave of globalization. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 24.09.2019  |  External Relations
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Pashinyan's New Tactic: 'Tougher in Public, Softer at the Negotiation Table'

By Ahmad Alili, Head of Research, Caucasus Policy Analysis Center, Baku By Ahmad Alili, Head of Research, Caucasus Policy Analysis Center, Baku

The next meeting between the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Armenia and Azerbaijan will be held in the upcoming days, most likely during the UN General Assembly in New York. This is the first meeting following Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's "Unification" speech on 5 August in Nagorno-Karabakh, which contained an unprecedented hardline rhetoric, hurting both 'Track1' and 'Track2' processes, which shocked Baku. Following the speech, Azerbaijani officials called for a reaction from the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 24.09.2019  |  Security
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Turkey's Strategic Balancing Act between Russia and the United States

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Turkey is successfully managing to implement a strategic balancing act in its relations with the US and Russia. Other regional actors may look at this policy and take good note.
Since the summer 2016 Turkish foreign policy has been facing a tough challenge: how to balance its growing partnership with Russia with its relations with the US? The rising tensions between the US and Russia, as well as the widening gap between the US and Turkish interests in Syria, the refusal by Washington to extradite cleric Fetullah Gulen, and simmering doubts among the Turkish leadership regarding the possible involvement of the US in the 2016 July military coup attempt, make this task even more daunting. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 16.09.2019  |  External Relations
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Armenia-Azerbaijan: Searching for New Models of Dialogue

Boris Navasardian Joint Study with “Yeni nesil”, coordinated by Boris Navasardian, President, Yerevan Press Club

The main purpose of this study was to consider the feasibility and prospects of revival of the Track-2 diplomacy and the development of appropriate recommendations. Although it was conceived and supported by the US government even before the political changes in Armenia, its relevance was confirmed by the intensification of the dialogue at the official level between Yerevan and Baku in the summer of 2018. Certain characteristics of the renewed interest in the informal communication were revealed during the visit to Yerevan of the Azerbaijani journalist Shahin Hajiyev, in February 2019, and by the interest of Armenian journalists to visit the neighboring country. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 16.09.2019  |  External Relations
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Perspectives of EU – South Caucasus Relations

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

South Caucasus is a part of EU’s Eastern Partnership program. Launched in 2009, the Eastern Partnership envisages fostering relations between the EU and six former Soviet Union republics – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. The key goal of this program is the signature of Association and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area agreements to bring about political association and economic integration. The top priority for the EU has been the political and economic development of the region, as Brussels did not want to have a permanent source of instability in its immediate neighborhood. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 09.09.2019  |  External Relations
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NATO’s Strategy Towards the Black Sea Region

Eugene Kogan By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

Although the pursuit of compromises and negotiations with Russia are an unwritten rule for countries such as Bulgaria and Turkey, such pursuits damage NATO as a whole. Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey remind us of the famous fable ‘Swan, Pike and Crawfish’- by Ivan Krylov: “When partners can’t agree their dealings come to a naught and trouble is their labor’s only fruit,” while Russia is joyfully rubbing its hands and laughing behind NATO’s back. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 09.09.2019  |  Security
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Perspectives of Armenia – Georgia Relations

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Armenia and Georgia have a long history of relations. In more recent times both republics were parts of the Soviet Union, and after the collapse of the latter the two states have found themselves involved in the regional geopolitics of the South Caucasus. Each of them chose its own foreign policy priorities based upon relevant perceptions of vital national interests. Armenia, being under joint Azerbaijani – Turkish pressure due to the Karabakh conflict and with memories of 1915 Armenian Genocide still fresh has no alternative but to establish political-military alliance with Russia. Georgia, with historical grievances over Russia’s role in demolishing Georgian independent statehood and still fresh memories of April 1989 tragic events in downtown Tbilisi, chose the path towards Euro-Atlantic integration. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 03.09.2019  |  External Relations
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US Strategic Goals in the South Caucasus Do Not Coincide with Armenian National Interests

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Relations with the United States are of significant importance for Armenia. Despite the relative decline in the US position as the only world super power, Washington still remains the number one global power in the world. The US is a Minsk Group Co-chair country, actively involved in the Karabakh conflict settlement process, and it exerts great influence in the neighborhood of Armenia. America is also home for the most influential part of Armenian Diaspora, which may play a key role in bringing desperately needed investments into the Armenian economy. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 22.08.2019  |  External Relations
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Iran - South Caucasus: Current Stage and Perspectives

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Iran is one of the key geopolitical actors of the Middle East. Despite the current “diplomatic isolation and maximum economic pressure” campaign launched by the US President Trump Administration, Iran retains its capabilities of making serious impact on regional geopolitics. It exerts political and economic influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen through various state and non-state actors and has a vast toolbox of asymmetric methods of political, economic and military struggle. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 16.08.2019  |  External Relations
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Dr. Marat Terterov, Co-founder of the EGF, and Dr. George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, contributed to a newly published volume on: “Building Resilience against Human Security Threats and Risks: From Best Practices to Strategies” The volume was produced by the National Defence Academy of Austria in collaboration with the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes. It brought up multi-disciplinary arguments explaining how education fostered resilience by equipping people with the knowledge and skills to navigate risks and adapt to new challenges. This Handbook addressed risks and threats associated with climate change, energy, demographic, food, water, medical and financial security, human trafficking, cyber security, hybrid threats, psychological manipulation, violence in the digital domain, ethnic violence in unresolved conflicts, economic fragmentation, and trade disruptions in the South Caucasus and beyond. Regional cooperation is essential for building resilience against human security risks and threats, since effectively addressing many of them, including conflicts, environmental crises, pandemics, and transnational crime, require collective action that transcends national borders. READ MORE

EGF Affiliated Expert Yeghia TASHJIAN has recently co-authored a Policy Brief on “Lebanon’s Foreign Policy: Challenges and Recommendations”. The Brief called for a shift toward positive neutrality and pro-active diplomacy, with concrete reforms to strengthen Lebanon’s diplomatic role and global standing. The authors wondered in a conclusive way: “Can Lebanon reclaim its place on the international stage?” READ MORE

EGF Affiliated Expert Dr. Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA has contributed to the collection published by Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung in Central Asia on: “Central Asia Facing the Challenges of Global Economic Transformation: Assessment and Forecasting”. Her report addressed “Evolving Trends in the Global Economy: Impact on India’s Long-Term Interests” She concluded that: “The global economy is changing in ways that unveils both opportunities and risks for India. The rise of protectionism, a splitting digital world, and competition over environmental policies are reshaping how countries work together. […] To adapt to the changing world order and help shape the emerging global economic order, India has to invest in its industries, strengthen partnerships, and create opportunities for its people. READ MORE (pp13-20)

EGF Affiliated Expert Benyamin POGHOSYAN was interviewed by the CIVILNET.AM on the prospects of Turkiye-Armenia relations. He analysed why Turkey’s role in the South Caucasus was underestimated and how Ankara’s “Azerbaijan First” policy would continue to constrain normalization with Yerevan. He discussed the pressure Azerbaijan exerted on Turkey to keep Armenia weak, and what President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s remarks about “symbolic steps” toward Armenia might mean. WATCH HERE

 

Between 07-10 November 2024, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 28th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Connectivity Risks and Opportunities in the South Caucasus”, held in Reichenau a/d Rax (Austria). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, here for George’s speaking points, here for the policy recommendations, and here for the proceedings of the workshop

Between 10-13 April 2025, Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 29th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Emerging Technologies in Conflict Prevention: Leveraging Technology for Peacebuilding in the South Caucasus”, held in Istanbul (Turkey). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, and here for George’s speaking points.

On June 3, 2025, Dr. George Vlad Niculescu gave a short brief on the outcomes and potential implications of Romania’s 2025 presidential elections to the “Neighbourhoods” Working Group of the Institute of European Studies de l’Université UCLouvain, site de Saint-Louis-Brussels. Read here his briefing.

  • The Daily BriefDecember 29, 2025
  • Stratfor 2018 Second-Quarter ForecastMarch 11, 2018
  • Stratfor 2018 Annual ForecastDecember 26, 2017
More
EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Fuad Shahbazov
EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Fuad Shahbazov
EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Alan Whitehorn
EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Alan Whitehorn

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