By Elkhan Nuriyev, BREC Global Energy Associate, EGF Affiliated Expert

The international community has so far paid little attention to the South Caucasus where the conflict resolution process is stuck in political limbo for years. This apparent neglect and the lack of understanding of the deep-rooted issues have created an informational landscape where fake news stories harm the ordinary people and violate their fundamental right to make informed choices on the basis of accurate information that is free of deception and manipulation. In effect, the current climate of disinformation aggravates regional tensions and makes incumbent authorities vulnerable to instability. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 27.03.2018  |  Markets
•  

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

An "Eurasianist" ideology is helping to consolidate a Russia - Turkey strategic alliance, as a viable tool to achieve long term strategic interests in the Middle East and beyond.
The security architecture of the Middle East is in the midst of a tremendous transformation. Since the end of the First World War the region has been under Western domination of some form or another. In 1920s and 1930s it was wrapped within the mandate system imposed by the League of Nations, and since the end of the Second World War the US has been the regional kingmaker. The Soviet Union had some footholds such as Egypt during Nasser's rule, as well as Syria and parts of Yemen. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |   |  External Relations
•  

By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

The Black Sea region is one of the regions in which Turkey has lost its influence to Russia. NATO and the EU have no influence on relations between Russia and Turkey, as NATO has no mechanism for excluding Turkey as a member state, while the EU, although it has implicitly suspended negotiations on Turkey's possible membership, it is not prepared to make a clear statement that Turkey will not join the Union in the foreseeable future. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |   |  Security
•  

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Since gaining independence in 1991 Armenia – Georgia relations have been characterized as friendly and mutually beneficial. Georgia is one of only two routes connecting Armenia to the world and Armenia serves as a land bridge for Georgia to Iran. The mainly positive historical memories also play a role in fomenting friendly images within both societies. […] Yet, there is a lack of clear articulation of the strategic rationale behind those bilateral relations. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |   |  External Relations
•  

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The convergence in the timing of key political processes in Armenia and Azerbaijan has heightened interest in Armenia regarding Azerbaijan's domestic developments.
The Azerbaijani President decision to move Presidential elections from October to April 2018 caught many in Armenia by surprise. The expert community put forward several clues on potential reasons for such a decision. The most discussed option was the possible deterioration of the economic situation in Azerbaijan in the second half of the year, which theoretically may complicate the re-election of Aliyev. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 05.03.2018  |  External Relations
•  

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

In recent months Iran has been facing both internal and external challenges. The wave of demonstrations shook up the Islamic Republic in late December – early January 2017-2018. The expert community still has contradicting views for the main reasons of the protest movement: internal struggle between conservatives and reformists, outside meddling with main arrows targeting the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia as potential sponsors, spontaneous movement based on economic hardships and rampant corruption. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 26.02.2018  |  External Relations
•  

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
The South Caucasus is facing an infrastructure development boom. However, Armenia is in stark isolation, with no major project passing through the country.
The launch of new transit routes and transport infrastructure are key topics widely discussed within the context of the geopolitics of the South Caucasus. Since the late 1990s several new pipelines, highways and railroads have been constructed traversing the region. Given the re-emergence of Russia as a key player in the post-Soviet space, since President Putin's ascendance to power in 2000, new transport corridors and large infrastructure projects have become factors in the wider competition between Russia and western countries. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 19.02.2018  |  Markets
•  

By George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

Most international analysts agree that Western relations with Russia are at their worst in thirty years, and that they are unlikely to improve unless significant geopolitical changes are going to emerge. More recently, a new academic debate has started on whether, and how, to restore the EU-Russia dialogue to meet the interests of both parties, while trying to reconcile respect for international law with principled pragmatism into creating a new European security architecture. It might be therefore worth looking at the prospects of restoring EU-Russia dialogue through the lens of security scenario planning. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 09.02.2018  |  Security
•  

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Since 2014, the containment of Russia has been one of the most popular topics within the expert community dealing with Geopolitics and Geostrategy. This term has been actively used by the Western political circles, including high level state officials and senior leaders of NATO. The Russian officials also use this term to describe Western, and, in particular, US policy towards Moscow. However, despite emphasizing the necessity to contain Russia in the post-Soviet space, including in the South Caucasus, little if anything is being done to change the geopolitical status quo. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 09.02.2018  |  External Relations
•  

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The Afrin events are being used to assert the notion that without Russian military guarantees, and a Russian military base deployed in Armenia, Yerevan will be under a constant threat from a potential Turkish offensive.
Turkey's military operation in Afrin proved once more that in the current geopolitical situation in the Middle East nothing can be excluded. Obviously, Turkey had made its own calculations when it launched the offensive, and the muted reaction of the main players of the region can be perceived as a proof that some preliminary discussions had taken place before the start of the operation. The nonlinear relations between powers involved in the Middle East makes it really complicated to understand what lies beneath the surface in terms of motives and assessments. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 02.02.2018  |  Security
•