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EGF
The European Geopolitical Forum

Monday 26 January 2026

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Publication
Russia – Turkey relations. Implications for the South Caucasus

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

In recent years, Russia – Turkey relations have gone through tremendous transformations. In November 2015, they entered the phase of acute crisis with no hope of quick improvements. However, in summer 2016 the process of reconciliation was launched, which resulted in bringing an unprecedented level of cooperation in economy and in the military-technical sphere. What are the main factors for such change and what does the current Russia – Turkey partnership mean for the South Caucasus. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 26.07.2019  |  External Relations
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Deciphering Armenia – Russia relations after the “Velvet Revolution”

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

A pivot towards the West is simply not in Armenia’s best interest.
Immediately after the “Velvet Revolution” in Armenia during the spring of 2018, the main narrative regarding possible developments in Armenian and Russian relations focused on negative expectations. Conventional wisdom brought plenty of reasons for such a mood. Russian authorities do not like leaders who come to power through street demonstrations, and Russia mainly exerts power in its neighbourhood through a network of corrupt and oligarchic elites. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 12.07.2019  |  External Relations
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New Russian Embargo - Collapse for Georgian Economy or Historic Chance?

By Nika Chitadze, PhD, Director, Center for International Studies, International Black Sea University, Tbilisi    By Nika Chitadze, PhD, Director, Center for International Studies, International Black Sea University, Tbilisi

By Putin's order, flights to Georgia from Russia will be prohibited from July 8. Based on past experience, it can be mentioned, that this step from the official Kremlin may not be a catastrophe for Georgia and on the contrary, to be a chance for the better future. The opening of the Russian market during the last several years and the partial settlement of relations with Russia was considered as a means of growth of Georgia's economy, but the developments since 2013 have proved contradictory. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 12.07.2019  |  Markets
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‘Game of Thrones Moment' for Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh

By Ahmad Alili, Head of Research, Caucasus Policy Analysis Center, Baku By Ahmad Alili, Head of Research, Caucasus Policy Analysis Center, Baku

In the real world, we do not have dragons, faceless men, red woman, white walkers or resurrection from the dead. Yet, the public policy challenges facing advisers in the famous Game of Thrones (GoT) TV show mirror those that political advisors to real governments face. We draw parallels to the real world in the way the show's decision-makers and advisers face the same limitations of time, resources and information bias. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 01.07.2019  |  Security
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Gazprom’s “Pipeline Policy” in the Black Sea Region

By Greta K. Wagner, Student, University of Glasgow, Intern, The European Geopolitical Forum By Greta K. Wagner, Student, University of Glasgow, Intern, The European Geopolitical Forum

The Black Sea is often described as a strategic crossroads, which links east-west and north-south transport corridors. Particularly with regard to hydrocarbon resources, the Black Sea serves as a transit route between suppliers in Russia, the Caspian region, Central Asia and the Middle East and consumers in the European Union. Given its strategic importance, the Black Sea is an important puzzle piece for Russia’s “energy superpower” strategy. READ MORE.

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 13.06.2019  |  Energy
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Is Russia Cultivating ‘Symmetric Separatism’ in Karabakh?

Eduard Abrahamyan By Eduard Abrahamyan, Wider Black Sea & Central Asia regional security analyst

Moscow’s mistrust of the Armenian government headed by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan dates all the way back to his rise to power last year in the so-called “Velvet Revolution.” And that mistrust has persisted despite Pashinyan’s various foreign policy gambits designed to win Russia’s confidence (see EDM, March 21). At the same time, Pashinyan’s domestic agenda—specifically, his determination to dismantle the previous regime’s oligarchic/kleptocratic order, including by prosecuting former president Robert Kocharyan for abuses of power—seems to be increasingly irking Moscow as well. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 13.06.2019  |  Security
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NATO and Georgian–American Military Relations

Eugene Kogan By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

Since the 2003 Rose Revolution, Georgia has become a staunch and dependable non-NATO ally of the United States in the South Caucasus. Georgian-American bilateral military relations have become stronger and have climaxed in November 2017. With 870 soldiers per capita, Georgia is the leading donor of troops in Afghanistan. This is highly appreciated by the United States. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 13.06.2019  |  Security
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The End of the Multi-vector World and the Creation of New Dividing Lines: Implications for Armenia

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The expert community dealing with international relations and security studies is involved in active debates regarding the current phase and future developments of the international security architecture. The prevailing topic is the end of United States (US) unipolar hegemony and establishment of more multi-polar, but an unstable and more complicated world with less respect towards the international laws and growing emphasis on coercive policy including threats and use of military force, economic sanctions and hybrid tactics. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 13.06.2019  |  External Relations
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The Number of People in Extreme Poverty Reaches Historical Minimum

By Nika Chitadze, PhD, Director, Center for International Studies, International Black Sea University, Tbilisi    By Nika Chitadze, PhD, Director, Center for International Studies, International Black Sea University, Tbilisi

As good news is less scandalous, it is rarely spread. However, it is necessary to point out that the percentage of people, who live in poverty, reached a historic minimum in 2018. Unfortunately, there was no appropriate reaction of the international community regarding this development. Over the last 30 years, the number of people who live in poverty has decreased by 1 billion. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 05.06.2019  |  External Relations
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Re-evaluating the idea of ‘Putinism’

Eduard Abrahamyan By Eduard Abrahamyan, Wider Black Sea & Central Asia regional security analyst

While the standoff between adversaries rages on, recent weeks saw an intensified communication between American and Russian high-level officials over the wide array of issues on which Moscow and Washington have contrasting views. On May 14, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with his Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and later with President Vladimir Putin in the Russian Black Sea city of Sochi. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 03.06.2019  |  External Relations
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Dr. Marat Terterov, Co-founder of the EGF, and Dr. George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, contributed to a newly published volume on: “Building Resilience against Human Security Threats and Risks: From Best Practices to Strategies” The volume was produced by the National Defence Academy of Austria in collaboration with the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes. It brought up multi-disciplinary arguments explaining how education fostered resilience by equipping people with the knowledge and skills to navigate risks and adapt to new challenges. This Handbook addressed risks and threats associated with climate change, energy, demographic, food, water, medical and financial security, human trafficking, cyber security, hybrid threats, psychological manipulation, violence in the digital domain, ethnic violence in unresolved conflicts, economic fragmentation, and trade disruptions in the South Caucasus and beyond. Regional cooperation is essential for building resilience against human security risks and threats, since effectively addressing many of them, including conflicts, environmental crises, pandemics, and transnational crime, require collective action that transcends national borders. READ MORE

EGF Affiliated Expert Yeghia TASHJIAN has recently co-authored a Policy Brief on “Lebanon’s Foreign Policy: Challenges and Recommendations”. The Brief called for a shift toward positive neutrality and pro-active diplomacy, with concrete reforms to strengthen Lebanon’s diplomatic role and global standing. The authors wondered in a conclusive way: “Can Lebanon reclaim its place on the international stage?” READ MORE

EGF Affiliated Expert Dr. Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA has contributed to the collection published by Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung in Central Asia on: “Central Asia Facing the Challenges of Global Economic Transformation: Assessment and Forecasting”. Her report addressed “Evolving Trends in the Global Economy: Impact on India’s Long-Term Interests” She concluded that: “The global economy is changing in ways that unveils both opportunities and risks for India. The rise of protectionism, a splitting digital world, and competition over environmental policies are reshaping how countries work together. […] To adapt to the changing world order and help shape the emerging global economic order, India has to invest in its industries, strengthen partnerships, and create opportunities for its people. READ MORE (pp13-20)

EGF Affiliated Expert Benyamin POGHOSYAN was interviewed by the CIVILNET.AM on the prospects of Turkiye-Armenia relations. He analysed why Turkey’s role in the South Caucasus was underestimated and how Ankara’s “Azerbaijan First” policy would continue to constrain normalization with Yerevan. He discussed the pressure Azerbaijan exerted on Turkey to keep Armenia weak, and what President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s remarks about “symbolic steps” toward Armenia might mean. WATCH HERE

 

Between 07-10 November 2024, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 28th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Connectivity Risks and Opportunities in the South Caucasus”, held in Reichenau a/d Rax (Austria). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, here for George’s speaking points, here for the policy recommendations, and here for the proceedings of the workshop

Between 10-13 April 2025, Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 29th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Emerging Technologies in Conflict Prevention: Leveraging Technology for Peacebuilding in the South Caucasus”, held in Istanbul (Turkey). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, and here for George’s speaking points.

On June 3, 2025, Dr. George Vlad Niculescu gave a short brief on the outcomes and potential implications of Romania’s 2025 presidential elections to the “Neighbourhoods” Working Group of the Institute of European Studies de l’Université UCLouvain, site de Saint-Louis-Brussels. Read here his briefing.

  • The Daily BriefJanuary 21, 2026
  • Stratfor 2018 Second-Quarter ForecastMarch 11, 2018
  • Stratfor 2018 Annual ForecastDecember 26, 2017
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EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Fuad Shahbazov
EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Fuad Shahbazov
EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Alan Whitehorn
EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Alan Whitehorn

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