By Nika Chitadze, PhD, Director, Center for International Studies, International Black Sea University, Tbilisi
As it is known, US President Donald Trump recently adopted a decision on the withdrawal of about two thousands American military serviceman from Syria. It is possible that one of the main purposes of the American contingent’s withdrawal is the restoration of closer relations between USA and Turkey and the prevention of strengthening cooperation between Moscow and Ankara. READ MORE
EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 28.01.2019
| Security
By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
It can be ascertained that until the Russian illegal annexation of Crimea, in March 2014, the Black Sea Region was perceived as a region with certain problems, but certainly not of a military nature. As a result, this region was neither high on the international community agenda nor on the radar screen of the NATO member states, and that despite membership of Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey in NATO. Furthermore, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his government thought back in 2014 that they were capable to handle President Vladimir Putin’s Russia single-handed, NATO assistance was not required, and non-NATO members such as Georgia and Ukraine should not be involved. READ MORE
EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 24.01.2019
| Security
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
US President Donald J. Trump recent decision to withdraw American forces from Syria caught everyone by surprise: the Washington establishment, foreign policy pundits and everyone else who follow the Middle East Geopolitics. Given the top priority which President Trump has attached to the containment of Iran and curbing its activities in the Middle East, many believed that US presence in Syria should have been either expanded or at least stayed the same. READ MORE
EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 28.12.2018
| External Relations
By Eduard Abrahamyan, Wider Black Sea & Central Asia regional security analyst
On October 24-26, a U.S. State Department delegation headed by National Security Adviser Ambassador John Bolton visited the South Caucasian republics after talks in Moscow. The delegation’s visit to Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia was immediately dubbed a reinvigoration of U.S. policy towards the Caucasus and a pragmatic reengagement with the conflicted region. Bolton appeared to refine the evolving U.S. priorities with each country, categorizing them in accordance with political capabilities, shared interests and the roles that Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia respectively seek in relations with the West. The visit, however, caused an angry reaction from Moscow, especially given the issues Bolton raised in Yerevan. READ MORE
EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 21.12.2018
| External Relations
Since the end of October 2018, a new operative communication line (crisis hotline) has been established between Armenia and Azerbaijan, two countries that have been at war over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh (NK), a region recognized as Azerbaijani by the International Community, but inhabited by a majority Armenian population.
According to official sources from both sides, the level of military tension on the Line of Contact (LoC) between the conflicting parties has significantly decreased (from about 90 reports of ceasefire breaches/day, to about 20 reports/day). The opening of this new communication channel had been agreed several weeks before by the president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, and the Prime-Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, during an informal meeting held in the margins of the CIS summit in Dushanbe (Tajikistan) on 27-28 September 2018. READ MORE
EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 11.12.2018
| Security
By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
On November 19, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev paid a long-awaited official visit to Belarus, where he met with his counterpart, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka. On this occasion, the Belarusian and Azerbaijani state news agencies praised the level of bilateral strategic cooperation, widely citing Lukashenka’s words to Aliyev: “Belarus has been waiting for you” (Belta, November 19). The Azerbaijani president’s trip to Minsk coincided with “growing frictions” between Belarus and Armenia, two formal allies within the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). READ MORE
EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 11.12.2018
| External Relations
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
The United States' decision to unilaterally withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran has triggered a new crisis around Iran. The Trump administration states that it does not pursue the policy of “regime change” but rather wants to get a “change of behaviour” from Tehran. However, the key American demands – withdrawal of Iranian forces from Syria, the halt of Iranian missile program and significant reduction of Iranian involvement in Iraq and Yemen – are tantamount to the capitulation. It’s obvious that if any Iranian government agrees to capitulate – that would be the shortest and safest way to domestic political turmoil which may result in regime change. READ MORE
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
As experts and politicians all over the world seek to grasp the key contours of emerging world order, sometimes dubbed the Post-Post-Cold War Era, there are few things agreed upon by the vast majority of them. Only one issue is clear: US – China relations will define the course of the 21st century. Will the US be able to accommodate the rise of China, keeping its role as a top global power? Will China be ready to be a part of the Western-created world order? Or will it try to do that, simultaneously amending it to Beijing’s goal to establish China as a centered global order? READ MORE
EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 26.11.2018
| External Relations
By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a surprise official visit to Azerbaijan, on September 27. The formal reason for his arrival was to hold talks with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev as well as to jointly attend the Ninth Interregional Russia-Azerbaijan Forum. Local mass media in both Azerbaijan and Russia described Putin’s visit as a next significant step in improving the strategic partnership between the two countries. READ MORE
EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 15.10.2018
| External Relations
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
The current phase of the international relations can be best characterized by one word – transition. The Post-cold war order is rapidly disappearing creating strategic ambiguity for all actors. The U.S. hegemony is over or close to over despite the fact that militarily Washington will be far from the reach for several decades to come. However, growing national debt, looming crisis in social security and Medicare systems, uncontrolled migration, growing populism, and partisan fighting does not bode well for the future U.S. dominance. READ MORE
EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 12.10.2018
| External Relations
EGF Head of Research, Dr. George Vlad NICULESCU, co-edited a new volume on “Understanding Contemporary Information Landscape Handbook (UCIL)” with the Austrian National Defence Academy and the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes: “The idea of this Handbook sprang forth from a policy recommendation issued at a past Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group (RSSC SG) workshop: “Create, with the assistance of PfP Consortium volunteers, a Reference Curriculum on Media Literacy, emphasizing the impact of modern communication techniques and social media on human biology, psychology and behaviour. The aim would be to raise awareness of the media as a tool of hybrid warfare, and how to build resilience to it at individual level.” Looking with an academic eye at the final product of our last three years of work I’d conclude that this Handbook is a great success as a valuable education tool for students and teachers in media studies, politics, international relations. READ MORE
EGF Affiliated Expert, Dr. Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA was interviewed by “Al Jazeera” on India’s shifting relations with China and the U.S. in the context of Prime-Minister Narendra Modi’s participation to the latest SCO summit in Tianjin (China). WATCH HERE
EGF Affiliated Expert Benyamin POGHOSYAN appeared in a new episode of the GROONG Podcast where he discussed: the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, the TRIPP corridor, Russia- Azerbaijan rift, and Armenia’s ties with the UK. WATCH HERE
EGF Affiliated Expert Alan WHITEHORN published recently a short comment on “Trump and the South Caucasus Accord” on keghart.org. He concluded that: “If Armenia survives over the next decade with no further loss of military personnel or territory due to incremental border encroachments or war, the tripartite agreement may be considered a minor win also for Yerevan”. READ MORE
Between 07-10 November 2024, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 28th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Connectivity Risks and Opportunities in the South Caucasus”, held in Reichenau a/d Rax (Austria). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, here for George’s speaking points, here for the policy recommendations, and here for the proceedings of the workshop
Between 10-13 April 2025, Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 29th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Emerging Technologies in Conflict Prevention: Leveraging Technology for Peacebuilding in the South Caucasus”, held in Istanbul (Turkey). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, and here for George’s speaking points.
On June 3, 2025, Dr. George Vlad Niculescu gave a short brief on the outcomes and potential implications of Romania’s 2025 presidential elections to the “Neighbourhoods” Working Group of the Institute of European Studies de l’Université UCLouvain, site de Saint-Louis-Brussels. Read here his briefing.