Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during April 16 th - May 15th 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Domestic politics heat up as the opposition CHP accuses Prime Minister Erdogan of authoritarianism in seeking the presidency after his term as prime minister is up.
• A judicial reform aimed at clarifying aspects of Turkish terrorism laws aims to placate EU critics and could lead to the release of hundreds of imprisoned activists.
• Turkey continues to avoid direct military intervention into Syria’s civil war, though fears of the sectarian conflict’s spread has the country on edge.
• U.S. sanctions aimed at Iran’s nuclear program necessitate Turkish efforts at diversifying its energy reliance away from Tehran.
• Israel makes overtures to Ankara regarding a natural gas pipeline in the eastern Mediterranean, while TANAP is set for construction to begin following ratification of the agreement by both Turkish and Azerbaijani parliaments.

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 18.05.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during April 1-15th 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Turkey and Israel take small steps in resuming normalized relations. Both are to formalize financial compensation for the Mavi Marmara incident, while Turkey is leaning on the victims’ families to drop their court cases against Israeli military personnel.
• NATO is set to benefit from the reset which allows Israel’s participation in alliance activities as a member of the Mediterranean Dialogue.
• Energy cooperation brings Turkey and the KRG of Iraq closer in spite of Baghdad’s objections. Turkish-Anglo firm Genel is set to profit from its early investments into the oil fields in the Kurdish north of Iraq.
• A cease fire continues to hold between the government and PKK, though Kurdish fighters are reluctant to give up their arms until a formal peace deal is agreed to. AKP leadership on the issue is causing splits in the main opposition CHP, with a nationalist camp opposed to the talks causing a pronounced rift to emerge in the party.
• A Turkish pianist is charged with hate speech for incendiary remarks against Muslims on his Twitter account. His conviction and other cases of free speech prosecutions are a dark stain on the AKP’s otherwise impressive governing record.

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 27.04.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during March 16-31 st 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• A cease fire is declared by PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan to coincide with the Kurdish New Year. PKK fighters cross into Iraq, though the next steps in the process remain unclear.
• Leftist militants attack the Ministry of Justice and AKP headquarters in Ankara while Erdogan visits Denmark. Prime Minister pins the blame on the “Deep State”.
• Israel officially apologizes for the Mavi Marmara incident and promises to compensate the victims’ families. Full diplomatic relations are restored between the once close allies and Erdogan offers a conciliatory note on his huge diplomatic success.
• Iraq and Turkey continue to work on planning a Basra-Ceyhan oil pipeline despite rift over Iraqi-Kurdistan. In apologizing to Turkey, Israel’s future for cooperating with Turkey on a gas pipeline project looks bright

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 09.04.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during March 1-15th 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Talks continue between Ocalan and the government, with a ceasefire being mentioned ahead of the March 21 Nevruz holiday.
• The autonomy of Kurdish fighters in Syria and Iraq leave Ankara anxious of the PKK exploiting increasingly fluid borders should peace talks fail.
• Turkey continues to avoid direct military intervention in Syria’s civil war, although fear of the conflict spreading has the country on edge.
• Ratings agencies think Turkey’s ability to cut its current-account deficit will fade over 2013. The central bank’s use of foreign cash in its monetary policies leaves the economy open to global shocks.
• Reliance on energy imports is fueling the growing account deficit, and Turkey’s lack of storage infrastructure prevents the country from sitting on supplies for later use.
• Turkey’s eastern provinces may hold shale gas deposits, while NABUCCO and TANAP’s intelligence sharing agreement will help diversify the country’s import markets

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 21.03.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during 16-28 February 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Negotiations over constitutional reform continue, with an agreement over the Chief of the General staff having been reached.
• AKP negotiators continue to push for a more powerful presidency, but opposition parties fear a lack of legislative and judicial checks on the office.
• Talks continue between the government and PKK leader Ocalan, though decades of conflict make a political solution remote in the short-term.
• A tense standoff in northern Syria between Kurdish and Arab fighters resembles similar conflicts for Kurdish minorities in other countries around the region. Ankara hopes that an agreement can be reached to keep northern Syria from becoming a PKK safe haven.
• An Israel-Turkey pipeline is impossible without Erdogan’s permission. Turkish energy firms specify their commitments in Iraq while trying to navigate the impasse between Erbil and Baghdad.

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 12.03.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during February 1-15th 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Domestic politics heat up as the opposition CHP accuses Prime Minister Erdogan of authoritarianism in seeking the presidency after his term as prime minister is up.
• A judicial reform aimed at clarifying aspects of Turkish terrorism laws aims to placate EU critics and could lead to the release of hundreds of imprisoned activists.
• Turkey continues to try to avoid a direct military intervention into Syria’s civil war, though fears of the sectarian conflict’s spread has the country on edge.
• U.S. sanctions aimed at Iran’s nuclear program necessitate Turkish efforts at diversifying its energy reliance away from Tehran.
• Israel makes overtures to Ankara regarding a natural gas pipeline in the eastern Mediterranean.
• ….while construction is set to begin on the TANAP gas pipeline following ratification of the agreement by both Turkish and Azerbaijani parliaments.

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 22.02.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during January 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Reports leak about the training of Turkish soldiers for missions to secure Syria’s weapons of mass destruction.
• Construction is underway on Kurdish Regional Government’s pipeline projects to Turkey. The project continues to be a thorn in the side of Baghdad, alienating it from Ankara as well as Erbil.
• KRG-Turkish cooperation is also key in Ankara’s efforts at creating a counterweight to the PYD in Syria, with pro-Masoud Barzani groups seen as a better option than PKK sympathetic militant groups.
• Turkey’s judicial and penal systems come under scrutiny despite substantial EU funding to improve prisoners living conditions.
• In a move to diversify away from cleaner gas-powered electrical production plants, tenders for coal powered plants are on the rise. The growth in coal power plants is part of a government effort to lessen reliance on gas supplies from Russia and Iran.

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 07.02.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during 1-15 January 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Turkey makes progress on the Kurdish issue, conducting unilateral talks with Abdullah Ocalan. Most Turks appear to support the government’s actions, but the assassination of a PKK co-founder in Paris raises concerns of sabotaging any future agreement.
• The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) begins oil shipments to Turkey while its relationship with Baghdad continues to deteriorate. Moves by the Iraqi government to bring Kirkuk under military control result in Turkey having to take sides in another civil war.
• The Turkish stock market produced positive returns for investors in 2012, well above the losses experienced by the Eurozone and U.S. But concerns rise over growing credit expansion according to Fitch’s latest report.
• Gazprom’s take or pay contracts end, resulting in over $3 billion in savings for Turkey. Meanwhile, the country invests in large scale refinery upgrades that will double its crude refining capacity. Energy Minister Yildiz visits Algeria and Libya to renew one energy deal in the former and promote investment in the latter.

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 24.01.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during December 1-31th 2012
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

• Turkey receives permission to post NATO’s Patriot missile batteries in the country’s south to combat potential attacks from Syrian Scuds
• The potential of Kurdish-Arab splits in the Syrian civil war continue to drag Ankara further into the deteriorating situation in the country.
• The Central Bank begins implementing a plan to protect the country’s banks from risky investment, while the government’s monetary policy seeks to ease inflation caused by expanding domestic credit availability.
• Prime Minister Erdogan’s presence sparks protests at an Istanbul university, with the ensuing violence
• employed as a “stick” with which to beat the ruling AKP by opposition parties.
• Erdogan’s office reportedly tapped; prime minister claims by the Deep State. However a lack of definitive perpetrators leaves many questions as to the validity to the claims.
• KRG Prime Minister Barzani assures U.S. on proposed Turk-Kurd pipeline, claims disputes with Baghdad should remain in the economic, not political realm.
• Shah Deniz II considers buying into Nabucco West, while Ukraine responds to South Stream by exploring a potential membership in TANAP.

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 31.12.2012  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during November 16-30th 2012
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

• Turkey requests Patriot missile defense systems from NATO out of fears of Syria launching WMD-tipped rockets at opposition fighters along the border.
• Prime Minister Erdogan’s anti-Israel stance gains him credibility in the Muslim world while alienating him from opportunities to help solve the Israeli-Palestinian situation.
• Investigations continue into the 1993 death of then-president Turgut Ozal. Although unrelated to the country’s current problems, a history of “Deep State” involvement in the government created a country where conspiracy theories fester.
• The AKP conducts an internal discussion on the possibility of revoking immunity from MPs which would specifically affect Kurdish BDP deputies.
• BOTAS raises prices on gas sold for domestic electricity supplies, while Gazprom seals long term export deals with four private Turkish firms.
• ENI continues to worry about its future in Turkey following the row over Cyprus, and TANAP is ratified by Azerbaijan’s parliament.
• In Iraq, Erdogan and al-Maliki trade barbs over the widening rift between the KRG and Baghdad.

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 10.12.2012  |  External Relations
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