Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during November 1-15th 2013 By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
The Prime Minister’s list of concerns grows as he rounds on cohabitation between male and female students
in both state-run dormitories and private residences.
It is a bizarre, if understandable issue to focus on, with the conservative Erdogan likely playing to social issues
to stir up his base ahead of election season.
A second theory behind Erdogan’s sudden concern for students’ lifestyles may be due to an ongoing split with
the Gulen movement given its ownership of private schools and dormitories.
Turkey and the Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq agree to a pipeline deal, but all may not be lost for
Baghdad as practical concerns necessitate cooperation for all parties.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during October 16-31st 2013 By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
Turkey slowly changes tactics in Syria, pulling back support for Islamist fighters who have begun to turn on
other opposition forces in the Free Syrian Army and Kurdish militias.
The Syrian offshoot of the PKK, the PYD, continues to push back groups like Jabhat al Nusra and Islamic State
of Iraq and Al Sham. Its leader has called on Turkey to halt its complicity in helping these groups.
A ceasefire continues to hold between the PKK and Turkish Security Forces, but time is running out for the
government to offer substantive next steps at reconciliation. Complicating Turkey’s relations with its own
Kurdish minority is the multiple breaks between Kurdish leaders throughout the region.
Europe and Asia are now connected by rail via the Marmaray Tunnel, though the long term financial
sustainability of the economy could be harmed by such projects. Turkey’s economy has slowed considerably,
and with the U.S. Federal Reserve set to raise interest rates in 2014, financing the growing budget deficit
could be a problem.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during October 1-15th 2013 By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
Turkey agrees to a Chinese manufactured missile defense system, worrying its NATO allies.
The European Commission says Turkey’s bid remains open to joining the EU while criticizing the government’s
handling of the Gezi Park protests.
Turkey’s EU negotiator expresses his doubts towards his Sisyphean task, saying that full membership is not
likely.
Abdullah Ocalan calls on the government to act on its promise to negotiate. The PKK’s military leader in the
field has halted the organization’s withdrawal from Turkey, meaning that should talks fail, a resumption of
violence would likely soon follow.
TANAP and TAP pipeline projects move forward, while the KRG has made more than $1 billion in profits
shipping oil overland to Turkish ports. The situation continues to draw the ire of Baghdad.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during September 1-30th 2013 By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
Prime Minister Erdogan announces the long-awaited democratization package. While a step in the right
direction, the proposal is lacking with regards to many of the challenges the Republic faces.
The opposition CHP, MHP and BDP voice disappointment with the prime minister’s proposals, but none have
pulled out of negotiations at the Constitution Conciliation Commission thus far. A positive sign, if any, exists.
Protests continue in the country’s major cities, albeit on a more sporadic basis than those in the summer.
Reasons behind each demonstration vary, yet the underlying dissatisfaction with the AKP remains a unifying
factor regardless of the location.
Syria’s civil war shows no sign of ending as infighting continues between the opposition forces.
Turkey tries a different track, making overtures to the PKK-affiliated PYD despite its connections to the
separatist group currently in the midst of a ceasefire with the Turkish government.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during August 16-31st 2013 By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
A chemical attack is allegedly launched in Damascus’ suburbs, threatening to elicit a U.S. military response
and possibly a wider regional war. Turkey backs the Americans, with Prime Minister Erdogan and President
Abdullah Gul saying Bashar al-Assad must go.
Kurdish fighters in northern Syria establish their own administrative areas in the country while continuing to
fight jihadist elements of the Free Syrian Army. Their autonomy may be a flashpoint should Turkey be forced
to make a ground incursion into Syria.
Egypt’s military-backed government continues to snipe back at the Turkish prime minister, who has emerged
as its most vocal critic outside of Egypt.
The poor relations between Ankara and Cairo may be costing Turkey influence and money with regional
partners who supported the military putsch that unseated Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during 1-16 August 2013 By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
The Ergenekon case reaches its expected finish, with 19 defendants facing decades in prison. Former Armed Forces Chief of Staff, Ilker Basbug, faces life for his role in the conspiracy.
The timing of the case’s conclusion with the recent military overthrow of Egypt’s democratically elected government appears to be a message to Turkey’s generals.
Outside of the AKP camp, critics rounded on the lack of plausibility regarding the evidence and cast of players.
Parliament’s Constitutional Commission speeds up its work, adding protections for women, children, and homosexuals to the draft document.
Turkey’s economy slows as foreign investment pulls back from emerging markets.
Yet the long term investment possibilities, specifically in the energy infrastructure sector, appear to be a solid bet.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during July 16-31, 2013 By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
The Kurdish PYD seizes several towns in Syria’s northwest, ejecting Islamist groups from a Turkish border crossing.
Turkey reaches out to the PYD, whose leader visits and meets with the country’s political and military representatives.
Reporters Without Borders drops Turkey to 154 in its press freedom index.
The PKK and AKP snipe at one another about adherence to the ceasefire. Progress on adjustment to legislation intended to ameliorate the Kurdish dilemma must be made soon, otherwise the momentum and dialogue gains made during recent months might slip away.
Turkey’s energy import payments decreased in early 2013, while plans for a proposed nuclear plant are rejected by the Ministry of Environment and Urban Planning.
Genel reports that the Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq will have its own export pipeline by 2014. It remains to be seen what the next move of the Iraqi Government will be.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during 1-15 July 2013 By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
Turkey’s Parliament recesses for the summer break, having pushed through several pieces of legislation at the last hour. The most divisive of these aimed at stripping the power of the influential architects’ union, which supported the Taksim Square protests.
Progress is slow on the new constitution. The CHP accuses Prime Minister Erdogan of only wanting to blame the opposition on the glacial nature of the new document in order to make himself president.
The PKK reshuffles its leadership, but the head of the group’s armed wing warns the Turkish government to take immediate steps to show it is committed to the peace agreement.
Turkey’s backing of moderate rebel fighters in Syria has not turned the tide in the country as Salafist groups with Gulf backers gain influence in the opposition.
The growing numbers of Syrian refugees pose a grave threat to Turkey’s own domestic tranquillity.
Completion nears on a northern oil pipeline between Turkey and the Kurdish Regional Government that will connect with the existing Kirkuk-Ceyhan line, all at the expense of Baghdad.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during June 16-30th 2013 By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
Germany again blocks Turkey’s EU accession negotiations, citing the AKP government’s response to the Taksim Square protests.
Turkey’s leading official in charge of EU negotiations criticizes German Chancellor Angela Merkel over the matter.
Prime Minister Tayip Erdogan continues assertions that foreign powers are at play behind the protest movement.
A lack of evidence to this assertion, and the obvious lack of a “Deep State” that he subdued continues to make Erdogan look like a leader proffering conspiracy theories rather than listening to protesters demands.
NABUCCO (West) meets its end when Shah Deniz Consortium chooses TAP pipeline project on June 28.
NABUCCO’s end is a result of over a decade of rising cost and changing geopolitical positions of the stakeholders involved.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during 1-15 June 2013 By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
Despite heavy police action to clear Taksim Square, the protests continue.
Erdogan’s hard line stance towards the demonstrations is opening a rift inside the AKP, with one camp
supportive of President Abdullah Gul’s conciliatory approach towards protesters.
The prime minister hints at foreign and domestic plots behind the Gezi Park situation, making him look
increasingly out of touch with the reality on the ground in Istanbul.
Turkey’s play in Syria falters as Sunni extremists come to the fore of the opposition. Meanwhile Bashar alAssad’s forces secure victories against the fractured opposition.
Exxon and TPAO in talks to secure an exploration block for shale gas in the Black Sea.
Tensions in Iraqi Kurdistan ebb as Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki visits Erbil.
EGF Head of Research, Dr. George Vlad NICULESCU, co-edited a new volume on “Understanding Contemporary Information Landscape Handbook (UCIL)” with the Austrian National Defence Academy and the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes: “The idea of this Handbook sprang forth from a policy recommendation issued at a past Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group (RSSC SG) workshop: “Create, with the assistance of PfP Consortium volunteers, a Reference Curriculum on Media Literacy, emphasizing the impact of modern communication techniques and social media on human biology, psychology and behaviour. The aim would be to raise awareness of the media as a tool of hybrid warfare, and how to build resilience to it at individual level.” Looking with an academic eye at the final product of our last three years of work I’d conclude that this Handbook is a great success as a valuable education tool for students and teachers in media studies, politics, international relations. READ MORE
EGF Affiliated Expert Benyamin POGHOSYAN published an Expert Opinion with the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies/ Rondeli Foundation on “Armenian Foreign Policy in 2025: The Return of Geography”. He concluded that: “The ongoing shifts in the global and regional order require Armenia to pursue a pragmatic foreign policy that avoids performative actions and embraces realistic, high-impact diplomacy. Armenia must continue to prepare for a South Caucasus shaped by an assertive Azerbaijan, increasingly influential Russia and Turkey, and diminished engagement from the United States and the European Union.” READ MORE
EGF Affiliated Expert Nika CHITADZE published a new book on “World Politics” with the International Black Sea University from Tbilisi, Georgia. The book is divided into four main parts: first part is dedicated to the history and theory of world politics; second part analyses key processes in world politics, such as: globalization, integration, and democratization. Third part describes the basic challenges facing the international community, including arms control and security, conflicts, terrorism, organized crime, failed states, demography, migration, environment, relations between the “Global North” and the “Global South”. The fourth part reviews the main aspects of regulating the political processes in the world with the methods and instruments of foreign policy and diplomacy, and global governance. READ HERE
EGF Affiliated Expert Yeghia TASHJIAN was recently interviewed by the "New Arab" on how developments in Syria impacted Hezbollah's politics and how the Lebanese government should carefully manage its relations with the new administration in Damascus. He was quoted saying: “Hezbollah lost its main Syrian regional power base and key political support system when support for the Assad regime ended. Syria was also an important transit country for smuggling Iranian missiles and weapons to Lebanon. Now that this transit is gone and amid Israeli pressure, Hezbollah feels squeezed between Israel from the south and sky and Syria from the East.”READ MORE
Between 07-10 November 2024, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 28th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Connectivity Risks and Opportunities in the South Caucasus”, held in Reichenau a/d Rax (Austria). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, and here for George’s speaking points.
Between 11-13 April 2024, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 27th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Does the European Union Need a Strategy for the South Caucasus?”, held in Chisinau (Republic of Moldova). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, here for George’s speaking points, and here for the ensuing Policy Recommendations.
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