Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during July 16th-Aug 15th-2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
Prime Minister Tayip Erdogan becomes the first popularly elected president of the Turkish Republic, capturing 51.7 percent of the vote and avoiding a run off.
Since the Presidency is still a largely ceremonial post, expect President-elect Erdogan to push hard for the 2015 parliamentary elections where an AKP majority win could pave the way for a constitutional change that empowers the executive branch.
Turkey tries to help the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) of Iraq hold the line, while negotiations continue for Turkish hostages held by the Islamic State (IS).
Following the latest Hamas-Israeli clash in the Gaza Strip, Turkey foreswears all cooperation with the Jewish state until the combat stops.
Turkey continues to balance economic ties between Erbil and Baghdad over oil shipments from the KRG, while the South Stream gas pipeline passes an environmental impact study off the Turkish Black Sea coast.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics between 16 May – 16 July 2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
Iraq implodes as the Islamic State (IS, formerly known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant or alternatively the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) allies with Iraqi Sunnis to overtake large swaths of the country’s northwest, including the city of Mosul. Turkish hostages are taken in the city, and the Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq halts IS’s march towards oil-rich Kirkuk.
Turkey balks at an independent Kurdistan, but in the long run, a stable and secular Kurdish state might become a better alternative to IS on its borders.
The CHP and MHP nominate religiously conservative Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu as their presidential candidate, while the Kurdish HDP’s Selahattin Demirtas may play kingmaker if Prime Minister Erdogan enters a runoff in the August election.
Parliament passes groundbreaking law moving the PKK peace talks forward, just in time for the presidential election.
The Central Bank continues to resist demands by the prime minister to sharply cut interest rates.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics between 16 April – 15 May 2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
Turkey faces up to the worst mining disaster in its history, while the prime minister bungles the official response. A deputy chief of staff for Erdogan is photographed kicking a protester, and accusations are levelled that the prime minister himself struck another.
Turkey’s top judge, with the prime minister in attendance, rebukes Erdogan in public statements in light of government criticism of the country’s top courts.
While Turkey’s economic growth relies on substantial imports of Russian energy, the fate of the Crimean Tatars seems to remain outside the Turkish regional agenda.
Alawites and Alevis, two religious minorities who largely support the opposition CHP, face an increasingly uncertain political future.
In remarks to an American journalist, Prime Minister Erdogan says the country will pursue extradition of Fethullah Gulen from the U.S.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during March 16th- - April 15th 2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
The AKP emerges victorious in the country’s municipal elections, capturing nearly 43 percent of all votes.
Opposition parties fare better than in previous contests, but their split gives the AKP the upper hand at the
ballot box.
His party’s success means that Prime Minister Tayip Erdogan will likely run for the presidency in August’s first
ever election by popular vote.
Erdogan’s government blocks social media sites, referring to critics as “enemies” and further degrading
political discourse in the Republic.
Recordings of high-level military and political meetings continue to leak to the public, and are used by the
AKP as justification to push for bans of many social media platforms.
The presence of hundreds of thousands of mainly Sunni Syrian refugees in southern Turkey continues to
concern Turkey’s Alevi communities.
The situation in Syria remains static, but a large-scale military escalation has the potential to severely
destabilize Turkey’s southern provinces.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during March 1-15th 2014 By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
The death of another Gezi Park protester sends opposition protesters into the streets two weeks ahead of
municipal elections.
While the AKP has been hampered over the last year, polls indicate little change from past election results as
opposition candidates lack the star power to counter the AKP’s leadership.
Fethullah Gulen blasts the ruling government in an op-ed, calling its authoritarian tactics a challenge for
Turkish democracy.
The AKP-Gulen Movement split causes further mistrust between Washington and Ankara, as the White House
openly rebukes Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan for mischaracterizing a discussion with President Barack
Obama.
Crimea secedes from Ukraine, though its Tatars sit out the referendum. Aside from expressing concern about
their plight, Ankara has little leverage over their fate in the new Crimean Republic.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during February 18-28th- 2014 By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
Ukraine loses control of the Crimean Peninsula, to the dismay of the region’s Muslim Tatar population.
Turkey’s historical and cultural ties to the Crimean Tatars increase the chance that the conflict escalates. However, its connections may also offer a path for Turkish diplomatic efforts to intercede in further confrontation between Russia and the West.
Leaked audio tapes appear to implicate Prime Minister Tayip Erdogan and his son of wrongdoing in the corruption scandal, though their authenticity remains disputed.
Erdogan hits back following the recordings release, claiming that the international media, the Gulen Movement and other outside powers are behind the investigations.
The peace process with the Kurds remains frozen as Abdullah Ocalan appears to warn the Gulen Movement against undermining the country by attempting a coup.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during February 1-18th 2014 By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
The AKP-majority in parliament passes a restrictive Internet censorship bill despite opposition parties and international outcry.
President Abdullah Gul declines to veto the measure, disappointing many who hoped he would be a moderating influence in the months to come.
American President Barack Obama to skip Turkey in March trip to Europe and Saudi Arabia. The skip is indicative of the cooling relations between the president and Prime Minister Erdogan over a number of issues.
TPAO declines investment in Iran for now, while talks on a pipeline deal in the Eastern Mediterranean and a détente between Turkey, Cyprus and Israel appears mutually beneficial.
Iraqi Kurdistan connects pipeline to Turkish system, enraging a Baghdad already beset by a Sunni insurgency in Iraq’s western province. Turkey is collecting the KRG’s oil, but has refused to sell it on international markets until an accord is reached.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during January 1-31st 2014 By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
The AKP government effectively halts the corruption investigations by conducting the largest judicial reshuffle
in the Republic’s history.
Fethullah Gulen defends prosecutors’ actions but denies any complicity on part of his Gulen Movement as
part of a conspiracy against the government.
Prime Minister Erdogan takes a softer tone in a hostile Brussels as he visits the seat of the EU for the first
time in five years.
Capital flight continues to harm Turkey’s economic prospects as the lira faces longest consecutive days of
losses against the dollar since 2001.
Defying the prime minister’s warnings that an interest rate hike is part of a conspiracy, the Central Bank acts
in an emergency meeting, raising interest rates more than 4 percent.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during December 1-31st 2013 By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
Investigators and police believed to be tied to the Gulen Movement arrest dozens with ties to government
and big business in Turkey, including the sons of three cabinet ministers.
Prime Minister Erdogan forces the resignation of nine cabinet members, some going quietly, others like
Environment and Urban Planning Minister Bayrraktar condemned the prime minister himself for seeking the
cabinet shuffle.
State-owned Halkbank’s connections with a money laundering scheme for the Iranian nuclear program
threaten to alienate Turkey’s Western allies.
The political uncertainty emanating from the investigations and subsequent interference with the judiciary by
the prime minister have caused sharp drops in Turkey’s markets. The lira closes the year out near a record
low.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during November 16-30th 2013 By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
The AKP-Gulen Movement split hits the front pages and airwaves in Turkey.
Once friendly outlets controlled by the Gulen Movement turn on Prime Minister Erdogan after a 2004 action
plan is released describing AKP complicity with the military to undermine Gulen-owned companies.
The Constitutional Commission fails on its mission having only agreed to half of the required articles.
Contentious issues regarding citizenship, the Kurdish issue and a new presidential role remain unresolved.
Turkey and the Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq look set to sign a pipeline deal despite continued
opposition from Baghdad.
EGF Head of Research, Dr. George Vlad NICULESCU, co-edited a new volume on “Understanding Contemporary Information Landscape Handbook (UCIL)” with the Austrian National Defence Academy and the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes: “The idea of this Handbook sprang forth from a policy recommendation issued at a past Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group (RSSC SG) workshop: “Create, with the assistance of PfP Consortium volunteers, a Reference Curriculum on Media Literacy, emphasizing the impact of modern communication techniques and social media on human biology, psychology and behaviour. The aim would be to raise awareness of the media as a tool of hybrid warfare, and how to build resilience to it at individual level.” Looking with an academic eye at the final product of our last three years of work I’d conclude that this Handbook is a great success as a valuable education tool for students and teachers in media studies, politics, international relations. READ MORE
EGF Affiliated Expert Benyamin POGHOSYAN published an Expert Opinion with the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies/ Rondeli Foundation on “Armenian Foreign Policy in 2025: The Return of Geography”. He concluded that: “The ongoing shifts in the global and regional order require Armenia to pursue a pragmatic foreign policy that avoids performative actions and embraces realistic, high-impact diplomacy. Armenia must continue to prepare for a South Caucasus shaped by an assertive Azerbaijan, increasingly influential Russia and Turkey, and diminished engagement from the United States and the European Union.” READ MORE
EGF Affiliated Expert Nika CHITADZE published a new book on “World Politics” with the International Black Sea University from Tbilisi, Georgia. The book is divided into four main parts: first part is dedicated to the history and theory of world politics; second part analyses key processes in world politics, such as: globalization, integration, and democratization. Third part describes the basic challenges facing the international community, including arms control and security, conflicts, terrorism, organized crime, failed states, demography, migration, environment, relations between the “Global North” and the “Global South”. The fourth part reviews the main aspects of regulating the political processes in the world with the methods and instruments of foreign policy and diplomacy, and global governance. READ HERE
EGF Affiliated Expert Yeghia TASHJIAN was recently interviewed by the "New Arab" on how developments in Syria impacted Hezbollah's politics and how the Lebanese government should carefully manage its relations with the new administration in Damascus. He was quoted saying: “Hezbollah lost its main Syrian regional power base and key political support system when support for the Assad regime ended. Syria was also an important transit country for smuggling Iranian missiles and weapons to Lebanon. Now that this transit is gone and amid Israeli pressure, Hezbollah feels squeezed between Israel from the south and sky and Syria from the East.”READ MORE
Between 07-10 November 2024, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 28th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Connectivity Risks and Opportunities in the South Caucasus”, held in Reichenau a/d Rax (Austria). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, and here for George’s speaking points.
Between 11-13 April 2024, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 27th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Does the European Union Need a Strategy for the South Caucasus?”, held in Chisinau (Republic of Moldova). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, here for George’s speaking points, and here for the ensuing Policy Recommendations.
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