Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
November – December 2015
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Guest Analyst
Key Points:
Predictions of the AKP’s demise have been greatly exaggerated as the party is swept back into power in the November elections.
Months of renewed violence between the state, the PKK and terrorist attacks by the Islamic State plunge Turkey into an increasingly dangerous security situation.
Turkey and Russia relations deteriorate as the former downed an encroaching Russian fighter as it crossed into Turkish air space.
The Middle East closes the year with no end to the violent upheavals that have roiled the region since the uprisings of the Arab Spring. Yet security and economic necessities appear to be drawing Turkey and Israel closer to an agreement on the renewal of relations following the fallout from the 2010 Mavi Marmara incident.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
June - October 2015
By Ben McPherson, Principal Editor and Standing Expert on the Black Sea Region
Key Points:
Surprising 7 June election results have led to extreme political measures, as President Erdoğan forces a do-over in an attempt to get a better result
The PKK/government ceasefire breaks down, which offers political opportunity for Erdoğan and the AKP but comes at a steep price:
The outbreak of violence has killed between 150-500 soldiers and police, and reportedly over 2,000 PKK members
Sources differ on whether Erdoğan or the PKK deserve blame for the re-ignition of hostilities, while all parties attempt to use it to their advantage
The Kurdish HDP and Selahattin Demirtaş walk a tightrope as they try to maintain their place as an accepted political party, while keeping their base of support
The situation over the border in Syria threatens to overwhelm all plans, as both the US and Russia make recent moves that are taking the conflict out of Erdoğan"s control
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
16 May – 17 June 2015
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
The AKP loses its parliamentary majority for the first time in 13 years, leaving the party in search of a coalition partner.
As coalition talks begin, a nationalist AKP-MHP government appears to be the most likely scenario, though the MHP demands that Erdogan retain a ceremonial role and that investigations into AKP corruption be part of any agreement.
An AKP-CHP “grand” coalition is possible, and, while less likely, might be a positive arrangement that could temper each party’s more extreme positions.
The Kurdish HDP passes the parliamentary threshold, but the fate of the PKK peace process hangs in the balance as relations with the AKP have hit an all-time low.
Uncertainty over the next government have put the brakes on the Turkish Stream Pipeline Project.
Brussels congratulates Turkey on the elections, yet the country’s EU accession talks look unlikely to pick up speed any time soon.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
15 April – 15 May 2015
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
The Kurdish Peoples’ Democracy Party (HDP) looks set to be a king maker in June’s parliamentary elections, though its leader vows its election platform is “the nightmare of the sultan”—in reference to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The HDP makes a bold play to connect with voters outside of its core Kurdish constituency that, if successful, may siphon votes away from the Republican People’s Party (CHP). If it fails, however, the party risks being shut out of parliament entirely.
After many years of competing interests, Saudi-Turkish political cooperation has the potential to impact the entire region.
While the Turkish Stream project grabs headlines, progress on the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP) draws the interest of potential new suppliers from Iraq and Iran.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
1 March 2015 – 16 April 2015
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
President Erdogan claims Iran is attempting to divide and conquer the Middle East, but tempers his criticisms following a visit to Tehran.
Turkish journalist Emre Kizilkaya notes the aftereffects of the Gezi Park protests and their resulting impact on the opposition’s electoral processes.
A Cold War relic reappears in a terrorist attack by a far left group, though the lack of support for the group’s actions indicate maturing Turkish political attitudes.
The geostrategic implications of the Turkish Stream Pipeline expand as two EU-member states sign on and Turkish energy importers seek to lower rising Russian gas prices.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
6 February – 28 February 2015
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
“Turkish Stream” looks increasingly viable as Turkey and Russia move forward with planning the Black Sea pipeline. The project worries supporters of the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline Project, especially Azerbaijan, though experts view the project as part of Turkey’s long term goal of diversifying pipeline projects that cross its territory in order to become an influential transit hub.
From his prison cell, PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan calls on the armed group to lay down the gun and pick up the ballot. The opportunity is now present for the AKP government to move forward on the Kurdish democratization package.
Turkey’s muted response to Russia’s seizure of Crimea leaves the peninsula’s 300,000 Tatars without a champion to highlight increasing persecution at the hands of the Moscow-backed government there.
The Southern Gas Corridor remains viable as Turkey diversifies its participation in pipeline projects. The government reiterates its commitment to TANAP, while Iran feels out future opportunities to partner with Turkey on a revived NABUCCO.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
1 January – 5 February 2015
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
Fethullah Gulen lambasts the AKP in the pages of The New York Times for Turkey’s perceived lurch toward autocracy. The government responds by seizing Gulen-affiliated Bank Asya for a lack of transparency.
Free speech and journalism are increasingly under threat in Turkey as the AKP continues to crack down on critics, regardless of the issue.
Greece’s new right-wing defence minister threatens to undermine Turkish-Greek relations in the eastern Mediterranean.
The Turkish lira continues to slide against the dollar after the Turkish Central Bank considers cutting interest rates. President Erdogan continues to push for lower rates as a measure of fighting inflation, despite general economic theory to the contrary.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
16 November – 31 December 2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
Russian President Vladimir Putin announces the annulment of the South Stream project, proposing instead a new pipeline to run from Russia to Turkey.
President Putin and Turkish counterpart Tayyip Recep Erdogan meet and discuss converging views on economic and energy issues, but note their stark differences on the Syrian Civil War.
The two countries’ partnership in economic and energy sectors has yet to thaw their strategic divergence in regional affairs, especially in light of Russia’s disputed annexation of Crimea and the different approaches to the conflict in Syria.
Gulen Movement adherents, including the chief editor of the country’s largest daily newspaper, are arrested on allegations of their part in a coup conspiracy.
Both the Trans-Adriatic and Trans-Anatolian pipeline projects might be boosted by South Stream’s demise, as the two projects lead the way in the burgeoning Southern Gas Corridor.
Turkey will stick to its deficit cutting plans despite low energy import prices, though unemployment continues to rise while the lira loses value to the American dollar.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
16 Sep. – 15 Nov. 2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
The Syrian border town of Kobane becomes a symbolic battleground between the Islamic State (ISIS) and the American-backed Kurdish fighters of the YPG. Turkey sits out the fight, deeming both sides to be terrorists.
Ankara, while insisting on increased American involvement in the form of regime change in Damascus, allows Kurdish Peshmerga from Iraq to cross into the besieged town.
The ruling AKP’s attempts to curb free speech on the Internet draw the ire of domestic and international observers.
Fitch remains reassured of Turkey’s stability for the time being, but a host of issues stemming from the country’s unstable neighbourhood threaten to undermine medium-term growth prospects.
Turkey remains vulnerable to gas cuts due to the Ukraine-Russia conflict. However, Turkey’s work on diversifying energy imports continues. The Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq is set to increase oil exports to the Turkish port of Ceyhan before the New Year, while improved relations with Greece may give Turkey another foot in the European energy market.
Despite setbacks in early October, the PKK peace process remains intact. The government must take another step in giving Turkey’s Kurds a reason to stay at the table, though the final decision on whether the peace holds may be left to imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan.
TANAP moves forward, but the inclusion of Turkmen gas may likely require the completion of a Trans-Caspian pipeline.
Turkish-owned Genel signs an agreement to begin preparations for the production of two Kurdish Regional Government gas fields in Iraqi Kurdistan. The news comes as Baghdad and Erbil finally agree to revenue and budget sharing, after months of strife.
President Erdogan offers bold pronouncements on the history of the Americas and Western duplicity in Syria at a conference of Latin American Islamic scholars.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during Aug. 16th - Sept. 15th 2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
New Prime Minister Ahmet Davuglotu announces his cabinet with few surprises, save the re-appointment of economic policy heads Ali Babacan and Mehmet Simsek. The cabinet will continue to carry out its predecessor’s policies, though Turkey’s de facto leader remains President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Turkey declines to actively support American-led airstrikes against the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria. Its reluctance, despite the continued imprisonment of 49 hostages by IS, has drawn the ire of critics in the West, who accuse it of failing to confront the jihadist fighters.
Syria’s refugees in Turkey look to swell to 1.5 million by the end of 2014. Their presence outside of the few refugee camps is giving rise to resentment amongst Turkey’s citizens.
The Babacan and Simsek appointments to the prime minister’s cabinet have soothed market concerns about the stewardship of the country’s economy, though slower growth in the coming years looks to be the next great challenge for the ruling AKP.
Turkish national oil company TPAO secures a 19 percent stake in the Shah Deniz-2 gas field, while Kurdish oil continues to flow to the Turkish port of Ceyhan despite the protestations of the Iraqi central government in Baghdad.
EGF Head of Research, Dr. George Vlad NICULESCU, co-edited a new volume on “Understanding Contemporary Information Landscape Handbook (UCIL)” with the Austrian National Defence Academy and the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes: “The idea of this Handbook sprang forth from a policy recommendation issued at a past Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group (RSSC SG) workshop: “Create, with the assistance of PfP Consortium volunteers, a Reference Curriculum on Media Literacy, emphasizing the impact of modern communication techniques and social media on human biology, psychology and behaviour. The aim would be to raise awareness of the media as a tool of hybrid warfare, and how to build resilience to it at individual level.” Looking with an academic eye at the final product of our last three years of work I’d conclude that this Handbook is a great success as a valuable education tool for students and teachers in media studies, politics, international relations. READ MORE
EGF Affiliated Expert Benyamin POGHOSYAN published an Expert Opinion with the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies/ Rondeli Foundation on “Armenian Foreign Policy in 2025: The Return of Geography”. He concluded that: “The ongoing shifts in the global and regional order require Armenia to pursue a pragmatic foreign policy that avoids performative actions and embraces realistic, high-impact diplomacy. Armenia must continue to prepare for a South Caucasus shaped by an assertive Azerbaijan, increasingly influential Russia and Turkey, and diminished engagement from the United States and the European Union.” READ MORE
EGF Affiliated Expert Nika CHITADZE published a new book on “World Politics” with the International Black Sea University from Tbilisi, Georgia. The book is divided into four main parts: first part is dedicated to the history and theory of world politics; second part analyses key processes in world politics, such as: globalization, integration, and democratization. Third part describes the basic challenges facing the international community, including arms control and security, conflicts, terrorism, organized crime, failed states, demography, migration, environment, relations between the “Global North” and the “Global South”. The fourth part reviews the main aspects of regulating the political processes in the world with the methods and instruments of foreign policy and diplomacy, and global governance. READ HERE
EGF Affiliated Expert Yeghia TASHJIAN was recently interviewed by the "New Arab" on how developments in Syria impacted Hezbollah's politics and how the Lebanese government should carefully manage its relations with the new administration in Damascus. He was quoted saying: “Hezbollah lost its main Syrian regional power base and key political support system when support for the Assad regime ended. Syria was also an important transit country for smuggling Iranian missiles and weapons to Lebanon. Now that this transit is gone and amid Israeli pressure, Hezbollah feels squeezed between Israel from the south and sky and Syria from the East.”READ MORE
Between 07-10 November 2024, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 28th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Connectivity Risks and Opportunities in the South Caucasus”, held in Reichenau a/d Rax (Austria). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, and here for George’s speaking points.
Between 11-13 April 2024, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 27th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Does the European Union Need a Strategy for the South Caucasus?”, held in Chisinau (Republic of Moldova). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, here for George’s speaking points, and here for the ensuing Policy Recommendations.
(295 Kb) 
