Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during April 2012
Key Points:
Turkey continues to work with Arab and Western allies to intensify pressure on Syria. After hosting the 1
April 2012, Friends of Syria group meeting, Prime Minister Tayip Erdogan responds to Syrian forces firing on a
Turkish refugee camp by openly considering invoking NATO’s Article 5 on mutual defence.
The Fethullah Gulen Movement’s influence on Turkey is re-examined following a somewhat controversial
expose in the 24 April edition of The New York Times.
A pricing dispute between the Kurdish Autonomous Government in Northern Iraq and the national
government threatens Turkish crude supplies, while the TANAP pipeline agreement between Azerbaijan and
Turkey should be signed by the end of the month.
NABUCCO loses a Hungarian stakeholder while Turkish gas pipelines operator, BOTAS, cuts down its own
stake in Brussels’ pipeline project. However, all is not lost in breaking Gazprom’s dominant grip on European
gas supplies, as TANAP will likely connect to the revamped NABUCCO West project.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during March 2012
Key Points:
Turkey closes its embassy in Syria and openly discusses establishing buffer zones inside its southern
neighbour for refugees fleeing the conflict zones.
There is discontent within Turkey’s Shia Muslim minority about the AKP government’s criticism of the Alawite
Assad regime, raising concern about possible ethnic tension in areas near the Turkey-Syria border.
Turkey releases two high profile journalists under investigation in the Ergenekon trial, but opens a second
investigation into comments made by one of them to the press upon his release.
Iraqi leaders envisage future export routes for the country’s oil through Turkey in case of a closure of the
Strait of Hormuz, while the two countries’ economic ties grow as the Kurdish north becomes a prime export
market for Turkish products.
Turkey will go forward with its lawsuit against Iran for short-supplying on a natural gas contract.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
February 2012
Key Points:
A crisis erupted between state prosecutors and the intelligence service, when members from the latter refused to turn up for questioning regarding an investigation into ties to the PKK. The intervention of prime minister and the parliament have calmed matters for now, but some experts speculate the incident is a result of a break between the AKP and the Gulenist movement.
Bloodshed in Syria continues while Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu travels to capitals throughout the world in an attempt to drum up support for an UN resolution to stop the violence there. Syrian refugees continue to flood into Turkey’s southern provinces, where the Free Syrian Army is said to be organizing the armed resistance to the regime in Damascus.
France’s Constitutional Council invalidates the Armenian Genocide draft law passed in January, though both presidential candidates have vowed to push a reworded version upon entering office.
The cold spell in Turkey shows the weakness in the country’s position as a net importer of gas, while supply issues with Azerbaijan and Iran drastically cut imports amidst increased use in the month. Energy Minister Taner Yildiz met with NABUCCO’s board of partners to discuss the link up of it and TANAP.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
January 2012
Key Points:
Russia’s Gazprom announces that the South Stream gas pipeline project will begin construction ahead of schedule in December 2012, putting NABUCCO in an increasingly precarious position.
Turkey slips further down the rankings of the media watchdog, Reporters Without Borders, press freedom rankings, now 148 out of 178 countries. This development comes following the fifth anniversary of the killing of writer Hrant Dink and a ruling in the case of his death stating that it was not the result of organized crime.
Former Turkish Military (TSK) Chief of Staff, Ilker Basbug, was arrested on charges of supporting websites that were part of a conspiracy to overthrow the government. The military remains quiet on the matter, indicating that the ruling AKP government has triumphed in keeping the TSK under full civilian control. But the wide swath of those accused of complicity in conspiracy investigations continues to draw criticism at home and abroad.
Both houses of the French parliament pass a law criminalizing the denial of the Armenian genocide, with Turkish politicians voicing their outrage at the decision against a backdrop where relations between Paris and Ankara are at the lowest level in recent memory.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during December 2011
Key Points:
The TSK mistakenly bombs unarmed Kurdish smugglers near the Iraqi border, adding yet another incident
that sets back Turkish-Kurdish relations and possibly fueling further violence.
Military, economic and political ties are severed between France and NATO ally Turkey following the National
Assembly’s vote to move an Armenian genocide bill forward.
Turkey’s Central Bank sells off over $1 billion in dollars to combat rising inflation, though by month’s end the rate had surpassed 10%.
Azerbaijan and Turkey agree to a new gas transport and supply deal for the Shah Deniz field, upsetting some
in Brussels who feel the new pipeline could undermine the time consuming progress for NABUCCO. READ MORE
EGF Editorial |
Опубликовано на EGF: 21.01.2012
| External Relations
Following the earthquake on October 23, 2011, a second powerful tremor struck eastern Turkey on November 9, killing 40 people including a Japanese rescue worker and two Turkish journalists who were covering the aftermath of the October quake.
The strong quake came on top of a severe cold snap that left much of the province of Van covered in snow, as refugees in the stricken city of Ecris continued to live out of tents. READ MORE
EGF Editorial |
Опубликовано на EGF: 30.12.2011
| External Relations
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during October 2011
Key Points:
Turkey’s economy continues to flourish in comparison with other developed economies on its European
periphery. The country gained over a million jobs and clocked an 11 percent growth rate in the first quarter
of 2011 while its GDP grew by 8.8 percent.
Germany’s Foreign Minister, Guido Westerwelle, leant his support to the Turkish accession bid to the EU,
saying that the EU should be “fair to Turkey in the negotiation process.”
Ankara continues its condemnation of Syrian violence against opposition and activist members, and
according to a number of reports, is now hosting a group of former Syrian soldiers called the Free Syrian
Army.
A large earthquake in the Van province has exacerbated Kurdish-Turkish relations with claims of bias being
leveled at the government for the manner of its response to the disaster in the mainly Kurdish region.
Turkish Security Forces (TSK) continue their assault on PKK strongholds in Iraq after a devastating attack in
mid-October that left 24 TSK soldiers dead. On October 28, police arrested a number of pro-Kurdish BDP
Party members in and around Istanbul, including member of the intra-party constitutional commission, Buşra
Ersanli.
Azerbaijan and Turkey finally conclude a natural gas supply agreement following two years of negotiations,
while BOTAS informs Gazprom that it will not renew a key existing gas supply contract with Russia.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during September 2011
Key developments:
Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan’s September is filled with tumultuous foreign policy issues, coalescing
disputes with Israel, Cyprus and the world’s stance towards Somalia in his statement to the UN General
Assembly.
The prime minister visited Libya, Egypt and Tunisia in a quick tour of countries touched by the Arab Spring
while continuing his condemnation of Syrian repression of civilians and rebuffing Iranian and Russian anger
at Ankara’s participation in NATO’s missile shield.
Kurdish-related violence seizes the country through terrorist attacks and military operations between PKK
fighters and the Turkish military. BDP Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party parliamentary deputies end their
boycott of the parliament in order to end the hostilities.
The European Commission instigates raids on Gazprom subsidiaries on suspected competition violations, with
many calling it a political move to garner support for Nabucco and undermine South Stream and Nord
Stream.
Energy major BP announces a planned pipeline from the Shah Deniz II field in Azerbaijan traversing Turkey,
Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary.
by Mehmet
Ogutcu, Expert in global energy security matters
The Turkish leadership has committed itself to a tough position on Israel, Cyprus and Syria, and any backtracking or sign of weakness will seriously affect its credibility at home, with regional partners, the “Arab Street” and other major global powers, as well as high stakes involved in the Eastern Mediterranean. This represents a policy of principle, consistent with the values and goals the government pursues, but is also a risky one, which if not well managed may lead to some undesirable hot confrontation. The power comes with responsibility if it will be effectively harnessed.
EGF Editorial |
Опубликовано на EGF: 05.10.2011
| Security
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during August 2011
Key developments:
Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan visits Mogadishu on a famine aid mission, the first visit by a non-African head
of state in nearly 20 years. The trip is a huge boost to Turkey’s international image.
Violence in the south-east of the country continues, leading to Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) cross-border raids
into Iraq.
Following criticism from the US Secretary of State, the justice ministry contradicts the number of journalists
said to be held by Turkish authorities.
Ankara continues to condemn the Syrian regime despite not calling for the resignation of President Bashar al-
Assad. The country wins a seat at the Paris meeting of the new Libyan government following the apparent
collapse of the Gaddafi regime.
Azerbaijan and Turkey continue to negotiate a gas transit agreement, while Turkey’s reliance on foreign
energy imports has reportedly increased 5 % since the AKP came to power.
EGF Head of Research, Dr. George Vlad NICULESCU, co-edited a new volume on “Understanding Contemporary Information Landscape Handbook (UCIL)” with the Austrian National Defence Academy and the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes: “The idea of this Handbook sprang forth from a policy recommendation issued at a past Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group (RSSC SG) workshop: “Create, with the assistance of PfP Consortium volunteers, a Reference Curriculum on Media Literacy, emphasizing the impact of modern communication techniques and social media on human biology, psychology and behaviour. The aim would be to raise awareness of the media as a tool of hybrid warfare, and how to build resilience to it at individual level.” Looking with an academic eye at the final product of our last three years of work I’d conclude that this Handbook is a great success as a valuable education tool for students and teachers in media studies, politics, international relations. READ MORE
EGF Affiliated Expert Benyamin POGHOSYAN published an Expert Opinion with the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies/ Rondeli Foundation on “Armenian Foreign Policy in 2025: The Return of Geography”. He concluded that: “The ongoing shifts in the global and regional order require Armenia to pursue a pragmatic foreign policy that avoids performative actions and embraces realistic, high-impact diplomacy. Armenia must continue to prepare for a South Caucasus shaped by an assertive Azerbaijan, increasingly influential Russia and Turkey, and diminished engagement from the United States and the European Union.” READ MORE
EGF Affiliated Expert Nika CHITADZE published a new book on “World Politics” with the International Black Sea University from Tbilisi, Georgia. The book is divided into four main parts: first part is dedicated to the history and theory of world politics; second part analyses key processes in world politics, such as: globalization, integration, and democratization. Third part describes the basic challenges facing the international community, including arms control and security, conflicts, terrorism, organized crime, failed states, demography, migration, environment, relations between the “Global North” and the “Global South”. The fourth part reviews the main aspects of regulating the political processes in the world with the methods and instruments of foreign policy and diplomacy, and global governance. READ HERE
EGF Affiliated Expert Yeghia TASHJIAN was recently interviewed by the "New Arab" on how developments in Syria impacted Hezbollah's politics and how the Lebanese government should carefully manage its relations with the new administration in Damascus. He was quoted saying: “Hezbollah lost its main Syrian regional power base and key political support system when support for the Assad regime ended. Syria was also an important transit country for smuggling Iranian missiles and weapons to Lebanon. Now that this transit is gone and amid Israeli pressure, Hezbollah feels squeezed between Israel from the south and sky and Syria from the East.”READ MORE
Between 07-10 November 2024, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 28th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Connectivity Risks and Opportunities in the South Caucasus”, held in Reichenau a/d Rax (Austria). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, and here for George’s speaking points.
Between 11-13 April 2024, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 27th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Does the European Union Need a Strategy for the South Caucasus?”, held in Chisinau (Republic of Moldova). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, here for George’s speaking points, and here for the ensuing Policy Recommendations.
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by Mehmet
Ogutcu,