Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during November 16-30th 2012
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Turkey requests Patriot missile defense systems from NATO out of fears of Syria launching WMD-tipped
rockets at opposition fighters along the border.
Prime Minister Erdogan’s anti-Israel stance gains him credibility in the Muslim world while alienating him
from opportunities to help solve the Israeli-Palestinian situation.
Investigations continue into the 1993 death of then-president Turgut Ozal. Although unrelated to the
country’s current problems, a history of “Deep State” involvement in the government created a country
where conspiracy theories fester.
The AKP conducts an internal discussion on the possibility of revoking immunity from MPs which would
specifically affect Kurdish BDP deputies.
BOTAS raises prices on gas sold for domestic electricity supplies, while Gazprom seals long term export deals
with four private Turkish firms.
ENI continues to worry about its future in Turkey following the row over Cyprus, and TANAP is ratified by
Azerbaijan’s parliament.
In Iraq, Erdogan and al-Maliki trade barbs over the widening rift between the KRG and Baghdad.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during November 1-15th 2012
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Hostilities erupt between Kurdish fighters and the FSA in Syria, with some Kurdish groups siding with the
opposition forces.
Prime Minister Erdogan condemns Israel in the latest round of fighting between the Jewish state and Hamas
controlled Gaza.
A month long hunger strike by Kurdish prisoners in Turkey is close to being called off as the PKK and the
government hold talks.
The AKP pushes through a draft law designating new municipalities, although the opposition claims they
have gerrymandered for an advantage in upcoming elections.
The government gives the go-ahead to sell electricity to Syria despite the current impasse with Damascus.
Turkey threatens ENI over its Cyprus exploration bid, while Tehran and Ankara renegotiate ahead of the
cessation of the “take or pay” natural gas contracts.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during October 16-31th 2012
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
The Syrian civil war continues with Turkish public opinion largely opposed to an intervention. The Republican
People’s Party (CHP) has seized on the mood in an attempt to win back political ground from the AKP.
A high-ranking U.S. military official tells Turkish academics that Washington will likely maintain its passive
stance on Syria unless authorized by the UN Security Council or NATO.
Turkey views Kurdish fighters in Syria as a threat amidst ongoing PKK-TSK violence. But a high-profile court
case and international focus on Kurdish hunger strikers may provide an opportunity for new discourse
between the government and the country’s largest minority.
Another oil export dispute between the Kurdish Regional Government and Baghdad threatens to further
undermine the Turkey-Iraq relationship.
South Stream continues to motor forward but the European Commission is not yet ready to offer special
exemptions to the Moscow-led project. This may lead to further delays in its realization.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during October 1-15th 2012
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
Syria and Turkey exchange artillery fire throughout October, and a Syrian airliner thought to be carrying
Russian military equipment is forced to land in Turkey.
The plane incident could have implications for Turkey’s vital Russian gas supplies, if the relationship between
the two countries deteriorates.
PKK violence continues unabated as the underlying issues facing Turkey’s Kurdish population are ignored for
short-term solutions.
To check the insights into Turkish domestic and international politics during September 16-30th 2012 please see our Turkey File, updated by John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
Prime Minister Erdogan leads the AKP party Congress, appearing to position himself for a presidential run in
2014.
Syria’s civil war is causing violence to flare between the PKK and Turkish security forces (TSK). The porous
nature of the Syrian-Turkish border is causing further domestic tensions, as the country’s population remains
ambivalent about intervention.
The Sledgehammer coup case concludes with a conviction and the TSK in its barracks.
Turkey’s domestic energy needs hit citizens’ wallets as the government cuts subsidies and attempts to
increase imports from Iraqi Kurdistan.
Turkey’s economic success is built on risky factors according to some investors, despite its 8 percent growth.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during September 1-15th 2012
Key Points:
Anti-American protests engulf the Middle East, leaving the U.S. Ambassador to Libya and three other
embassy staff dead. Prime Minister Erdogan is the most prominent Muslim leader to criticize violence in the
name of religion.
Bloodshed in Syria continues, although Turkish public opinion remains opposed to military intervention.
PKK-TSK fighting increases in the country’s southeast, with Ankara focused on PKK fighters’ control of safe
havens in northern Syria.
Baghdad halts new registrations for foreign firms, affecting Turkish investment in Iraq. Oil agreement
reached by Erbil and Iraqi Oil Ministry may sooth tensions, but conviction in absentia of renegade, formerdeputy-
president, Tareq al-Hashemi, remains a sore point in Turkish-Iraqi relations.
Turkey and Iran may be on the verge of another energy related dispute and possible arbitration round, as
Tehran continues to level Ankara with high gas prices.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during July 2012
Key Points:
Syria is in the grips of a full fledged civil war, with opposition forces assassinating the country’s minister of
defense and other high ranking officials in a Damascus meeting of senior regime officials.
Fighting has escalated near the Turkish-Syrian border. Turkish military units are being deployed as a
precaution, especially in light of reports of PKK forces seizing portions of northern Syria.
Oil exports from the Kurdish region of Iraq to Turkey continues to draw the ire of government officials in
Baghdad. However, despite the disputes, cooperation on projects will likely continue.
Azerbaijan’s energy minister weighed into the NABUCCO West Vs TAP debate, saying the former was the best
option for delivering Shah Deniz gas to Europe.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during June 2012
Key Points:
Syria shoots down a Turkish military plane, greatly heightening tensions between the countries.
Although Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan threatens action in response to any further threats from Syria,
domestic opinion polls from just prior to the incident show a Turkish public hesitant to confront the Assad
regime.
Meanwhile, the CHP and AKP party leadership meets in an attempt to revive reconciliation efforts with the
country’s Kurdish minority.
As constitution discussions continue, Erdogan’s statements on the necessity of a strong presidential office
worries his critics who fear he will take over and extend his reign as head of the country following the end of
his term as prime minister.
In the energy sector, Azerbaijan and Turkey appear to have finalized the TANAP pipeline agreement while
Turkish Energy Minister, Taner Yildiz, discusses the future of nuclear power in Turkey at the World Economic
Forums.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during May 2012
Key Points:
Turkey expels Syrian diplomats after the massacre of over 100 people in Houla. Although Ankara is rumoured
in some circles to be harbouring remnants of the Syrian opposition military forces, overt Turkish intervention
in Syria remains unlikely at the time of writing.
Ankara increases its cooperation with the Kurdish Regional Government in Erbil, while also harbouring a high
level, fugitive Sunni Iraqi politician. Tensions between Baghdad and Turkey continue to deteriorate over the
two issues.
The ongoing coup and terrorist investigations roiling the country have Prime Minister Tayip Erdogan
concerned. The prime minister urged for the probes to speed up for the good of the country.
Erdogan sparks a fierce debate in Turkey over his remarks on abortion rights.
EGF Head of Research, Dr. George Vlad NICULESCU, co-edited a new volume on “Understanding Contemporary Information Landscape Handbook (UCIL)” with the Austrian National Defence Academy and the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes: “The idea of this Handbook sprang forth from a policy recommendation issued at a past Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group (RSSC SG) workshop: “Create, with the assistance of PfP Consortium volunteers, a Reference Curriculum on Media Literacy, emphasizing the impact of modern communication techniques and social media on human biology, psychology and behaviour. The aim would be to raise awareness of the media as a tool of hybrid warfare, and how to build resilience to it at individual level.” Looking with an academic eye at the final product of our last three years of work I’d conclude that this Handbook is a great success as a valuable education tool for students and teachers in media studies, politics, international relations. READ MORE
EGF Affiliated Expert Benyamin POGHOSYAN published an Expert Opinion with the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies/ Rondeli Foundation on “Armenian Foreign Policy in 2025: The Return of Geography”. He concluded that: “The ongoing shifts in the global and regional order require Armenia to pursue a pragmatic foreign policy that avoids performative actions and embraces realistic, high-impact diplomacy. Armenia must continue to prepare for a South Caucasus shaped by an assertive Azerbaijan, increasingly influential Russia and Turkey, and diminished engagement from the United States and the European Union.” READ MORE
EGF Affiliated Expert Nika CHITADZE published a new book on “World Politics” with the International Black Sea University from Tbilisi, Georgia. The book is divided into four main parts: first part is dedicated to the history and theory of world politics; second part analyses key processes in world politics, such as: globalization, integration, and democratization. Third part describes the basic challenges facing the international community, including arms control and security, conflicts, terrorism, organized crime, failed states, demography, migration, environment, relations between the “Global North” and the “Global South”. The fourth part reviews the main aspects of regulating the political processes in the world with the methods and instruments of foreign policy and diplomacy, and global governance. READ HERE
EGF Affiliated Expert Yeghia TASHJIAN was recently interviewed by the "New Arab" on how developments in Syria impacted Hezbollah's politics and how the Lebanese government should carefully manage its relations with the new administration in Damascus. He was quoted saying: “Hezbollah lost its main Syrian regional power base and key political support system when support for the Assad regime ended. Syria was also an important transit country for smuggling Iranian missiles and weapons to Lebanon. Now that this transit is gone and amid Israeli pressure, Hezbollah feels squeezed between Israel from the south and sky and Syria from the East.”READ MORE
Between 07-10 November 2024, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 28th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Connectivity Risks and Opportunities in the South Caucasus”, held in Reichenau a/d Rax (Austria). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, and here for George’s speaking points.
Between 11-13 April 2024, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 27th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Does the European Union Need a Strategy for the South Caucasus?”, held in Chisinau (Republic of Moldova). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, here for George’s speaking points, and here for the ensuing Policy Recommendations.
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