Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during May 16-31th 2013 By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
Protests in Istanbul’s Taksim Square erupt over a heavy handed police response and government indifference
to the protesters’ demands.
The protest, while minor in the beginning, has been a spark that has brought hundreds of thousands into the
streets across Turkey’s major cities, with anger directed at the leadership of Prime Minister Erdogan.
International press widely covers the protests, drawing the attention of investors who have until recently
been extolling the virtues of AKP governance. Should the unrest continue, Turkey’s impressive economic
performance could come to a halt.
Despite civil unrest, the country’s energy future looks bright as NABUCCO West brings on GDF Suez and
Turkmenistan seals an agreement for transit rights across Turkey for natural gas shipments.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during April 16 th - May 15th 2013 By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
Domestic politics heat up as the opposition CHP accuses Prime Minister Erdogan of authoritarianism in
seeking the presidency after his term as prime minister is up.
A judicial reform aimed at clarifying aspects of Turkish terrorism laws aims to placate EU critics and could
lead to the release of hundreds of imprisoned activists.
Turkey continues to avoid direct military intervention into Syria’s civil war, though fears of the sectarian
conflict’s spread has the country on edge.
U.S. sanctions aimed at Iran’s nuclear program necessitate Turkish efforts at diversifying its energy reliance
away from Tehran.
Israel makes overtures to Ankara regarding a natural gas pipeline in the eastern Mediterranean, while
TANAP is set for construction to begin following ratification of the agreement by both Turkish and Azerbaijani
parliaments.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during April 1-15th 2013 By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
Turkey and Israel take small steps in resuming normalized relations. Both are to formalize financial
compensation for the Mavi Marmara incident, while Turkey is leaning on the victims’ families to drop their
court cases against Israeli military personnel.
NATO is set to benefit from the reset which allows Israel’s participation in alliance activities as a member of
the Mediterranean Dialogue.
Energy cooperation brings Turkey and the KRG of Iraq closer in spite of Baghdad’s objections. Turkish-Anglo
firm Genel is set to profit from its early investments into the oil fields in the Kurdish north of Iraq.
A cease fire continues to hold between the government and PKK, though Kurdish fighters are reluctant to give
up their arms until a formal peace deal is agreed to. AKP leadership on the issue is causing splits in the main
opposition CHP, with a nationalist camp opposed to the talks causing a pronounced rift to emerge in the
party.
A Turkish pianist is charged with hate speech for incendiary remarks against Muslims on his Twitter account.
His conviction and other cases of free speech prosecutions are a dark stain on the AKP’s otherwise impressive
governing record.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during March 16-31 st 2013 By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
A cease fire is declared by PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan to coincide with the Kurdish New Year. PKK fighters
cross into Iraq, though the next steps in the process remain unclear.
Leftist militants attack the Ministry of Justice and AKP headquarters in Ankara while Erdogan visits Denmark.
Prime Minister pins the blame on the “Deep State”.
Israel officially apologizes for the Mavi Marmara incident and promises to compensate the victims’ families.
Full diplomatic relations are restored between the once close allies and Erdogan offers a conciliatory note on
his huge diplomatic success.
Iraq and Turkey continue to work on planning a Basra-Ceyhan oil pipeline despite rift over Iraqi-Kurdistan. In
apologizing to Turkey, Israel’s future for cooperating with Turkey on a gas pipeline project looks bright
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during March 1-15th 2013 By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
Talks continue between Ocalan and the government, with a ceasefire being mentioned ahead of the March
21 Nevruz holiday.
The autonomy of Kurdish fighters in Syria and Iraq leave Ankara anxious of the PKK exploiting increasingly
fluid borders should peace talks fail.
Turkey continues to avoid direct military intervention in Syria’s civil war, although fear of the conflict
spreading has the country on edge.
Ratings agencies think Turkey’s ability to cut its current-account deficit will fade over 2013. The central
bank’s use of foreign cash in its monetary policies leaves the economy open to global shocks.
Reliance on energy imports is fueling the growing account deficit, and Turkey’s lack of storage infrastructure
prevents the country from sitting on supplies for later use.
Turkey’s eastern provinces may hold shale gas deposits, while NABUCCO and TANAP’s intelligence sharing
agreement will help diversify the country’s import markets
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during 16-28 February 2013 By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
Negotiations over constitutional reform continue, with an agreement over the Chief of the General staff
having been reached.
AKP negotiators continue to push for a more powerful presidency, but opposition parties fear a lack of
legislative and judicial checks on the office.
Talks continue between the government and PKK leader Ocalan, though decades of conflict make a political
solution remote in the short-term.
A tense standoff in northern Syria between Kurdish and Arab fighters resembles similar conflicts for Kurdish
minorities in other countries around the region. Ankara hopes that an agreement can be reached to keep
northern Syria from becoming a PKK safe haven.
An Israel-Turkey pipeline is impossible without Erdogan’s permission. Turkish energy firms specify their
commitments in Iraq while trying to navigate the impasse between Erbil and Baghdad.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during February 1-15th 2013 By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
Domestic politics heat up as the opposition CHP accuses Prime Minister Erdogan of authoritarianism in
seeking the presidency after his term as prime minister is up.
A judicial reform aimed at clarifying aspects of Turkish terrorism laws aims to placate EU critics and could
lead to the release of hundreds of imprisoned activists.
Turkey continues to try to avoid a direct military intervention into Syria’s civil war, though fears of the
sectarian conflict’s spread has the country on edge.
U.S. sanctions aimed at Iran’s nuclear program necessitate Turkish efforts at diversifying its energy reliance
away from Tehran.
Israel makes overtures to Ankara regarding a natural gas pipeline in the eastern Mediterranean.
….while construction is set to begin on the TANAP gas pipeline following ratification of the agreement by
both Turkish and Azerbaijani parliaments.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during January 2013 By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
Reports leak about the training of Turkish soldiers for missions to secure Syria’s weapons of mass destruction.
Construction is underway on Kurdish Regional Government’s pipeline projects to Turkey. The project continues to be a thorn in the side of Baghdad, alienating it from Ankara as well as Erbil.
KRG-Turkish cooperation is also key in Ankara’s efforts at creating a counterweight to the PYD in Syria, with pro-Masoud Barzani groups seen as a better option than PKK sympathetic militant groups.
Turkey’s judicial and penal systems come under scrutiny despite substantial EU funding to improve prisoners living conditions.
In a move to diversify away from cleaner gas-powered electrical production plants, tenders for coal powered plants are on the rise. The growth in coal power plants is part of a government effort to lessen reliance on gas supplies from Russia and Iran.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during 1-15 January 2013 By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
Turkey makes progress on the Kurdish issue, conducting unilateral talks with Abdullah Ocalan. Most Turks appear to support the government’s actions, but the assassination of a PKK co-founder in Paris raises concerns of sabotaging any future agreement.
The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) begins oil shipments to Turkey while its relationship with Baghdad continues to deteriorate. Moves by the Iraqi government to bring Kirkuk under military control result in Turkey having to take sides in another civil war.
The Turkish stock market produced positive returns for investors in 2012, well above the losses experienced by the Eurozone and U.S. But concerns rise over growing credit expansion according to Fitch’s latest report.
Gazprom’s take or pay contracts end, resulting in over $3 billion in savings for Turkey. Meanwhile, the country invests in large scale refinery upgrades that will double its crude refining capacity. Energy Minister Yildiz visits Algeria and Libya to renew one energy deal in the former and promote investment in the latter.
Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during December 1-31th 2012
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Turkey receives permission to post NATO’s Patriot missile batteries in the country’s south to combat potential attacks from Syrian Scuds
The potential of Kurdish-Arab splits in the Syrian civil war continue to drag Ankara further into the deteriorating situation in the country.
The Central Bank begins implementing a plan to protect the country’s banks from risky investment, while the government’s monetary policy seeks to ease inflation caused by expanding domestic credit availability.
Prime Minister Erdogan’s presence sparks protests at an Istanbul university, with the ensuing violence
employed as a “stick” with which to beat the ruling AKP by opposition parties.
Erdogan’s office reportedly tapped; prime minister claims by the Deep State. However a lack of definitive perpetrators leaves many questions as to the validity to the claims.
KRG Prime Minister Barzani assures U.S. on proposed Turk-Kurd pipeline, claims disputes with Baghdad should remain in the economic, not political realm.
Shah Deniz II considers buying into Nabucco West, while Ukraine responds to South Stream by exploring a potential membership in TANAP.
EGF Head of Research, Dr. George Vlad NICULESCU, co-edited a new volume on “Understanding Contemporary Information Landscape Handbook (UCIL)” with the Austrian National Defence Academy and the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes: “The idea of this Handbook sprang forth from a policy recommendation issued at a past Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group (RSSC SG) workshop: “Create, with the assistance of PfP Consortium volunteers, a Reference Curriculum on Media Literacy, emphasizing the impact of modern communication techniques and social media on human biology, psychology and behaviour. The aim would be to raise awareness of the media as a tool of hybrid warfare, and how to build resilience to it at individual level.” Looking with an academic eye at the final product of our last three years of work I’d conclude that this Handbook is a great success as a valuable education tool for students and teachers in media studies, politics, international relations. READ MORE
EGF Affiliated Expert Benyamin POGHOSYAN published an Expert Opinion with the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies/ Rondeli Foundation on “Armenian Foreign Policy in 2025: The Return of Geography”. He concluded that: “The ongoing shifts in the global and regional order require Armenia to pursue a pragmatic foreign policy that avoids performative actions and embraces realistic, high-impact diplomacy. Armenia must continue to prepare for a South Caucasus shaped by an assertive Azerbaijan, increasingly influential Russia and Turkey, and diminished engagement from the United States and the European Union.” READ MORE
EGF Affiliated Expert Nika CHITADZE published a new book on “World Politics” with the International Black Sea University from Tbilisi, Georgia. The book is divided into four main parts: first part is dedicated to the history and theory of world politics; second part analyses key processes in world politics, such as: globalization, integration, and democratization. Third part describes the basic challenges facing the international community, including arms control and security, conflicts, terrorism, organized crime, failed states, demography, migration, environment, relations between the “Global North” and the “Global South”. The fourth part reviews the main aspects of regulating the political processes in the world with the methods and instruments of foreign policy and diplomacy, and global governance. READ HERE
EGF Affiliated Expert Yeghia TASHJIAN was recently interviewed by the "New Arab" on how developments in Syria impacted Hezbollah's politics and how the Lebanese government should carefully manage its relations with the new administration in Damascus. He was quoted saying: “Hezbollah lost its main Syrian regional power base and key political support system when support for the Assad regime ended. Syria was also an important transit country for smuggling Iranian missiles and weapons to Lebanon. Now that this transit is gone and amid Israeli pressure, Hezbollah feels squeezed between Israel from the south and sky and Syria from the East.”READ MORE
Between 07-10 November 2024, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 28th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Connectivity Risks and Opportunities in the South Caucasus”, held in Reichenau a/d Rax (Austria). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, and here for George’s speaking points.
Between 11-13 April 2024, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 27th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Does the European Union Need a Strategy for the South Caucasus?”, held in Chisinau (Republic of Moldova). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, here for George’s speaking points, and here for the ensuing Policy Recommendations.
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